Fantasy Football Whiz

The Importance of August 10th

Written by Adam Lasik Thursday, 10 June 2010 21:17

The tenth of August is a very special day for NFL players and fantasy football owners alike. Despite this day being as special as it is, precious little exists in the realm of fantasy football websites, or any other websites for that matter, regarding it. Even knowing the importance of August 10th and running a pointed search turns up only a few significant hits.

August 10th is 30 days before the first game of the 2010 regular season, and is the day that players under contract to their respective teams must report, or lose a year towards free agency. That's right - in essence, they get a year added on to their contracts if they fail to report by August 10th.

It's one of those little rules that rears its head thanks to the uncapped year, or "Final League Year," according to the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

So what does that mean? Well, essentially it means that there won't be any long-term holdouts. Players vying for a new contract MIGHT toy with the idea of sitting past then if they are supremely confident that a new contract will be completed before the start of the season, but even in those cases there is little worry of a protracted holdout, and hopefully their agents aren't stupid enough to let them try it.

Many fantasy football owners spend an inordinate amount of time worrying about holdouts, even rearranging their rankings accordingly in case a high-profile player sits out X number of games. In most years, that ends up being a bit silly as holdouts into the regular season are exceedingly rare. There is an increased likelihood of injury to a player who sits out until near the start of the regular season, but missed games due to holdouts alone, while not unheard of, almost never happen.

In the immortal words of the late, great Douglas Adams - Don't Panic. Simply put, everyone will report by August 10th, because nobody wants their gambit to backfire and cost them another full season before they can go after the big money in free agency. The only incentive for the players is to show up with plenty of time to get in shape before opening day.

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Underrated, or Just Plain Sucks?

Written by Adam Lasik Monday, 12 April 2010 22:56

Jason Campbell is not “the Man,” but to listen to many people, from the bitter whining of frustrated Redskin fans to the pedantic hyperbole of various talking heads, one would be left with the impression that he may well be the worst person to ever play the game – at any level.

He’s not.

In fact, not only is he not the worst to ever play, he’s so dramatically underrated that Donovan McNabb, while an upgrade, will not be all that much of one. There’s more to a team than one player, no matter how trendy it may be to rip apart a particular guy.

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Mike Martz: The Offense

Written by Mike Clay Thursday, 01 April 2010 08:56

Mike Martz brings it in Chicago in 2010.

Written by Mike Clay. You can find more of his exceptional work here: www.FantasyDC.com

Much has been said about the Bears hiring of Mike Martz as their new Offensive Coordinator. Regardless of whether or not you feel the hiring will translate into wins for the franchise, one thing is for sure: the Bears will throw the football…a lot.

Now that might not seem like much of a change if you watched this squad in 2009. The Cutler-led Bears threw the ball on 58% of their offensive snaps (4% were sacks, 38% runs), which was good enough to place them as the 4th pass-heaviest team in the NFL behind only Arizona, Seattle, and Indianapolis. I took the time to break down the boxscore of every game since 1999 where Martz was a team’s Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator. His average Pass:Run:Sack ratio over those 8,757 plays was 58 % pass, 37% run, 5 % sack. The first thing that should jump out at you is that 5% sack rate (yes, that’ s high. We’ll get to it later), but also note how close his pass:run ratio is to what the Bears put up in 2009. This tells me that we should expect about that ratio (if not more passing) in 2010.

Before I dig any deeper, let’s take a deeper look at my sample size. I consider 8,757 plays over 10 seasons to be plenty. The first 7 seasons come from his time in St. Louis. He was the Offensive Coordinator in 1999, before taking over as Head Coach in 2000, a job he held through 5 games into the 2005 season. Martz spent 2006 and 2007 as the Lions Offensive Coordinator and held the same post for the 49ers during the first 7 games of the 2008 season. Take a look at the team’s records and pass:run:sack splits during those 10 seasons. Note that I only include the games from 2005 and 2008 in which Martz was on staff.

Chart 1
Year	Tm	Gm	Pos	W	L	Plays	Sack%	Pass%	Run%
1999	STL	16	OC	13	3	994	3%	53%	43%
2000	STL	16	HC	10	6	1014	4%	58%	38%
2001	STL	16	HC	14	2	1007	4%	55%	41%
2002	STL	16	HC	7	9	1024	4%	62%	33%
2003	STL	16	HC	12	4	1054	4%	57%	39%
2004	STL	16	HC	8	8	1011	5%	57%	38%
2005	STL	5	HC	2	3	336	6%	64%	30%
2006	DET	16	OC	3	13	963	7%	62%	32%
2007	DET	16	OC	7	9	965	6%	61%	34%
2008	SF	7	OC	2	5	389	7%	51%	42%
TOTAL				78	62	8757	5%	58%	37%

Winning and running the ball a higher-than-average percentage of the time are tied together, but you should know by now that this is because good teams are generally ahead in the second half and will run the ball in order to keep the clock moving. The splits in Chart 1 show an obvious trend for Martz. Including only the 8 full seasons he coached, the team passed between 61-62% of the time the 3 seasons they were under .500. In the 5 other seasons, his team was .500 or better and passed between 53-58% of the time. His 2 best seasons in terms of record (1999 and 2001) were also the two seasons he passed the least (53% and 55 %, respectively).

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2010 Free Agency Fantasy Impact - Offense

Written by Adam Lasik Saturday, 13 March 2010 00:44

Free agency started with a bang this year as a few teams took advantage of the uncapped season and restrictions on the playoff teams to go out and make an effort to buy some players who, they think, will fill some gaping holes. Free agency is not without risk, though, as a surprisingly large number of players who were very good with their old team find it extremely difficult to repeat that success in new surroundings. So which players can be trusted? Which ones will be overvalued? Which ones should be talked up in an effort to get a leaguemate to pick him WAY too high? Read on for a few quick impressions on the key free agency moves for offenses. And before you ask, no, they aren't ALL listed, but if you don't see a name, they either have not been signed as of the writing of this piece, or they probably shouldn't be on your fantasy radar, anyway. So, let's dive in...

QB

David Carr - San Francisco 49ers (from New York Giants) - Carr is a solid backup and will be given the opportunity to press Alex Smith, but it seems unlikely that Smith's job is truly threatened.

A.J. Feeley - St. Louis Rams (from Carolina Panthers) - Feeley has done well in relief in the past, but he's a prototypical backup and should not be relied upon as a starter. And even if he were to win the job in St. Louis - it's still the Rams. He will help Null or whoever else the Rams might draft or bring in, but Feeley shouldn't be on your fantasy roster.

Jim Sorgi - New York Giants (from Indianapolis Colts) - Sorgi has been sitting behind, watching, learning from, and helping Peyton Manning for years. Now he gets to take that knowledge to NY to help Eli. Sorgi is fantasy-useless, but watch for some changes for the better in how Eli does things as a result of Sorgi's influence.

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