i agree with the concerns....but right now we have all the ingredients of a bust out year. Was Welker a stud WR before NEP? Hasn't he #3 in MIA? So C Jax could make the most of his chances and bust out. Sure he could be a flop...but he is one of my WR's to WATCH!!!
Well, no... we actually don't have any of the ingredients of a bust out year.
I wrote an article that appeared in a magazine that shall remain nameless (bastages) about third-year breakouts. In that article, I noted that my research displayed that there are a number of flags to look for that allow us to come fairly close to a "scientific" analysis of who is most likely to break out.
The most critical flag is the previous years' performance. In the vast majority of "breakout" cases, there is a clear ramping up of performance that typically involves a jump from the 200-yard range their rookie season to the 700-900 yard range in year 2.
Jackson doesn't have that.
The second most critical factor is a situation change. This change is highlighted by a loss of a player or a repositioning of the depth chart. This is not expected to be the case in New England. The closest thing to a situation change may be that Jackson will now be in position to get to that 700-yard range, making him a solid candidate for a year-4 breakout.
Jackson bears NONE of the flags that I look for in predicting a breakout season this year - and his tendency toward injury is a huge negative. I find it difficult to consider him in the same class as the other third-year wideouts because of his lack of experience, and even more difficult to predict a breakout because of his lack of performance on the field.
That's not to say it's impossible... but I consider it extremely improbable. If Moss or Welker gets injured early in the season, we may re-evaluate... but with both of them on the field considered along with Jackson's own history - I just don't see this as his year.
