Face Off - Ryan Grant


It's a great story, isn't it? An un-drafted rookie gets signed into the NFL, but fails to make any impact for the team that originally signed him, and ends up buried deep on the roster of the Green Bay Packers. Then, after the starters in front of him are lost to injury, he finally gets a chance to play in that first year with the team.  He amazingly rises to the occasion and becomes an out-of-nowhere success and a hot commodity on the fantasy football waiver-wires as he excels with several 100+ yard games for the Packers.

Ryan Grant in 2007? Yep.

But... Also Samkon Gado in 2005.

Grant and Gado were both completely unexpected rags-to-riches stories. Gado did it in his first year in the league, after failing to make the practice squad for the Chiefs who originally signed him as a rookie. Grant took until his third year: He was signed as an un-drafted rookie by the Giants in 2005, the same year that Gado came into the league. Grant spent all of that first year on New York's practice squad, and then sat out all of 2006 with a non-football injury. He then ended up in Green Bay following a trade in 2007.

But with opportunities due to injuries, the Packer's offensive line ahead of them, and Brett Farve's arm and skill for improvisation there to keep defenses guessing, both Gado and Grant became huge successes and beloved feel-good stories among the Lambeau faithful.

So, given all the similarities, the question this off-season is: Will Ryan Grant return in 2008 and keep on playing at the same high level he did in his first year with the team? Or - like Samkon Gado - will Grant struggle and never again achieve the success he did in that first "magic season"?







 

To me, the potential hold-out & loss of Favre does knock him down a few spots, but the O-line in front of him is still intact.  Rodgers, while "inexperienced," is no rookie -- this will be his 4th year in the league.  So it's not like he's new the system.  The knock on him is that he's gotten dinged-up in limited action -- only time wil tell how that pans out.

Even still, seems to me that GB will lean more heavily on the run until Rodgers proves he can produce.  Thus, more looks for Grant, and some extra spell-time for whomever his backup will be.  Everyone expected big #'s out of LJ last year, but he was pretty mediocre, even pre-injury.  I'd say Grant's supporting cast is 10 times better -- O-line, WRs, and a D to keep the games from being blowouts, allowing for the run-game to stay pertinent.

Grant tagged the vaunted MIN D for 119 yds & a TD on 25 carries (4.8 ypc), 88 vs CAR, 94 & 2 TDs vs DAL, and 100 & a TD vs CHI -- all tough run D's.  And his stats were good against the poor run D's when it was expected of him, too (OAK, STL, DET).

He probably would've cracked 1000 yds, but only had 6 carries (one TD) in the final game.  If memory serves, GB had already locked up their post-season seeding, so that was a meaningless game, and the starters were pulled to keep them healthy.

Does the holdout concern me?  Yes.  But the situation should be resolved by training camp.  99% of drafts occur in late August anyway, so all the rankings are pure conjecture right now.

If you draft Grant as your #1 RB in the early-mid 2nd round (which is what his current ADP looks to be), then you may want to grab your #2 RB sooner than originally planned, but his upside is too good to ignore.

a big risk if you take him in top 10....if he doesn't produce...ouch

Here is my .02 cents on Ryan Grant and why I think he will finish a top 7 back in 2008. While I believe this entirely,  I would still not draft him early in round 1 because (I am a coward... )I believe enough people have serious doubts about his abilities that he will end up the steal of the 2008 draft in round 2, IMO.

1. Hold out E Grahm signed a 10.5 Million dollar contract extension this past weekend. This is pertinent because their situations are very similar and while Grahm's contract was not as good as the 12 million Fargas got he was negotiating vs much tougher management personel. Grant' agent and the Pack now have a clearly defined price range and they will waste little time in signing him IMO.

2. 2007 Season In non PPR leagues, Grant was the #15 Rb and the #53 overall player.  In basicaly 9 regular season games, Grant tallied  5- 100 yd games, 956 yards on 188 carries, and added 30 catches for 147 yards. Not too bad for a player with 6 carries in the first 6 games. In fact, Grant notched 7 of his 8 tds in the last 6 games of 2007 and in the playoffs last year Grant had 3 more tds and nearly 210 all purpose yds vs Seattle! That would give him 1150+ yds, 32 recs and 11 tds in 11 games as a starter which matches MBIII's entire season!

3. Brandon Jackson I have read all about the extra weight Jackson has put on and it will only help Grant in 2008. Grant managed the numbers above on 200 carries. Even if Jackson manages to stay healthy and get 150 carries Grant will still improe on his touches from 2007.

4. Aaron Rodgers Not a huge fan of his but he has been in the same system for 2 years and had every opportunity to learn from the great B Favre. He will be good enough, as evidenced last year vs Dallas, to keep D's honest and the wrs will help him to look even better.

5. O- Line The Pack has an above average O line and they will be an improved group that is deeper thanks to the draft and FA. They should only improve from 2007.

Grant 2008 1250 rushing yards, 13 TDs, 30 receptions and another 150 yds making him a top 7 RB....or am I delusional?