Start ‘Em
QB: Jay Cutler, DEN (vs. Buffalo)Expect big things from this promising youngster throughout the season, but especially in week 1. The departures of DB Nate Clements, LB London Fletcher-Baker, and LB Takeo Spikes will hurt the Bills all season since they seemingly failed to find suitable replacements. Cutler threw 9 touchdowns in only 5 games last season, and now will have a dependable back in Travis Henry to help him shoulder the load. Picking apart a patchwork defense shouldn’t be all that difficult. With limited pressure, aside from Aaron Schobel, Cutler should come out of the gates blazing.
RB: Ahman Green, HOU (vs. Kansas City)While Green is getting to that critical point in a running back's career where they begin to fade, don’t count him out. If you drafted him as a 3rd back this is a good time to get him in the lineup. Kansas City's defense has proven time and time again that they will allow teams to run right over them, and Green has been pretty good over the course of his career in season openers. Over the past four seasons, Green has rushed for 340 yards (4.3 YPC) and 4 TDs on opening days making him one of the most talked about “why didn’t I get him on draft day” guys. I fully expect him to eclipse 100 yards with a score.
WR: Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (vs. New England)Last season, New England couldn’t find a way to stop Cotchery. In two meetings, Cotchery caught 12 passes for 191 yards and 2 TDs. With no significant offseason additions to the WR-core, Cotchery should continue to see plenty of balls thrown his way. Last season, he was targeted 7.8 times per game and was able to convert 65.6% of them. That percentage puts him 3rd amongst wide receivers with at least 7.0 targets per game (behind Mike Furrey and TJ Houshmandzadeh).
TE: Desmond Clark, CHI (@ San Diego)With rookie TE Greg Olsen rehabbing a knee injury, Clark looks to be like a fairly safe bet as an opening day TE. Rex Grossman is going to need a safety net against a strong San Diego front 7, and Clark should be able to pick up a handful of catches on outlets. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him catch a play-action pass for a touchdown either.
Sleeper Start ‘Em
QB: David Garrard, JAX (vs. Tennessee)This is the perfect team for Garrard to play and try to and make the statement that the brass made the right decision in making him the starter. Last season, Garrard led the Jaguars to a 37-7 rout of Tennessee in his first full game as the starter. He threw for 3 TDs and no INTs. When the venue changed to Tennessee, Garrard struggled and threw 3 picks; however, one was to Adam “Pacman” Jones and the other was to Reynaldo Hill. Jones is no longer with the team, and Hill may be replaced by rookie Michael Griffin (who would be playing his first official game out of his natural safety position).
RB: DeShawn Wynn, GB (vs. Philadelphia)Every RB in Green Bay seems to be battling early season injuries. Vernand Morency (patellar strain) and Brandon Jackson (concussion) have slowly been making their way back while Noah Herron injured his knee in the final preseason game and was placed on the IR. Recently acquired Ryan Grant is now battling a hamstring injury and is doubtful to play this week. Wynn, who is coming off a quad injury himself, could certainly see some time on Sunday as he has been sharing carries with Jackson and Morency at the latest practices. Who knows, he may well be the last one standing come Sunday.
WR: Terrance Copper, NO (vs. Indianapolis)With Joe Horn out of the picture in New Orleans, Copper’s value is quietly on the rise. Last season, Copper was targeted only 42 times; but, 65% of them came in games in which Horn didn’t suit up. Copper was also targeted only 6 times in the redzone, and all of which came in games without Horn. This week could be similar to week 10 in Pittsburgh last season where Copper was targeted 12 times, had 92 receiving yards, and a TD. Don’t forget that Marques Colston and Devery Henderson are each nursing minor injuries.
TE: Marcedes Lewis, JAX (vs. Tennessee)Someone has to catch the balls that Garrard is throwing. With 5 underachieving wide receivers vying for playing time, Jacksonville’s #1 TE may very well be the one making the splash. Last season, Lewis had three receptions against Tennessee (a single game season high) in a limited role. Expectations have been on the rise in Jacksonville as Lewis has shown the ability to move downfield quickly and make tough catches. This will be his first chance to prove his coaches right.
Sit ‘Em
QB: Eli Manning, NYG (@ Dallas)Manning found success against Dallas last season, but most of it was at home. With the Cowboys’ recent release of DB Aaron Glenn, the Giants passing game looks like a good bet against a weakened defensive backfield; however, Manning has never performed well in Big D completing only 47% of his pass attempts there over the course of his career. Also, with a new running back (Brandon Jacobs) behind him, the Cowboys are more likely to be keying on the pass.
RB: Tatum Bell, DET (@ Oakland)Bell has had plenty of experience against the Raiders from his days in Denver, but none of it seemed to go well. Last season, Bell managed to rush for 3.2 YPC against Oakland while being the primary back in both outings (37 carries for 120 yards). He did manage to score one touchdown, but it was his only score against the Raiders in his career (the team, ironically, he has carried the ball against the most). The combination of the Raiders stopping the run with Mike Martz’ itchy trigger finger points to a big day for Jon Kitna and the receivers, but a downer for Bell.
WR: Torry Holt, STL (vs. Carolina)When a star WR starts making comments about not being 100% and that he might not be ever fully healed, alarms should start going off in a fantasy owners’ head. There is no doubt that Torry Holt is one of the greatest WRs currently playing the game, but if he’s hurt he’s hurt. Will he play? It’s more than likely. Will he be the WR that can carry St. Louis as well as millions of fantasy teams around the world? This is a “sit ‘em if you have anyone reasonable” recommendation. WR is deep. There’s probably someone healthy that can be just as productive.
TE: Heath Miller, PIT (@ Cleveland)Typically, you want to start everyone against Cleveland. The hold up with Miller is the Steelers’ complete lack of desire to throw him the ball. Despite showing good hands, Pittsburgh tends to want to pound the ball into the endzone when they are inside the 5 with Willie Parker. Expect a big day for Pittsburgh’s running game, but a slow day for Miller.
Absolutely Sit ’Em
QB: Philip Rivers, SD (vs. Chicago)It’s tough to recommend anyone against the Chicago defense after last season’s showing, but I certainly wouldn’t trust Rivers. This will be Rivers’ first game against the Bears, and a look back at his games show that Rivers only played against 2 of the top 7 fantasy defenses all season: Baltimore in week 4 and New England in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. In those two games, Rivers’ went a combined 27-54 (50%) with 1 TD and 2 INT. He’s suitable for easy to medium matchups, but make sure you have a back up when he plays the top defenses.
RB: Jamal Lewis, CLE (vs. Pittsburgh)If you are in a heavily weighted touchdown league, Lewis has been a decent option against the Steelers over the past three seasons (5 TD in 6 games). However, things are different for Lewis now, as he no longer has the likes of Jonathan Ogden and Co. blocking for him. Now in Cleveland, expect Lewis’ numbers to decline from his previous 2.9 YPC and 53.3 yards per game average against Pittsburgh. With limited line help, and the increased likelihood of playing from behind, Lewis’ forecast looks pretty grim.
WR: Bernard Berrian, CHI (@ San Diego)Berrian was a second half disappointment after such a promising start in 2006. After averaging 61.9 YPG in the first half, Berrian fell to 40.0 in the second with only 3 less receptions (24). He also cut his touchdown receptions in half and, aside from one game against New England; Berrian didn’t have a single second half game with 63 yards or more. Compound this by playing against a stout San Diego defense AND having Grossman at QB and this has all the makings for a disappointment.
TE: LJ Smith, PHI (@ Green Bay)In Smith’s case, it’s plain and simple: we don’t know how healthy he truly is. We have heard that he should be fine for week one, but he was held out of all of the preseason games with a groin injury and is still doubting his own health. Keep him benched until you actually see him play in a game.
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