Welcome to the Whiz’s “WHODAT” for week two, highlighting some of the winners and losers from week one. There simply isn’t enough room to put every player who might deserve mention in this column, but we’ll try and cover many of them:

QB Tony Romo (DAL): The Cowboys and the New York Giants engaged in a wild shootout Sunday Night, and you know Cowboys always win shootouts. This is what the Colts vs. Saints game wanted to be when it grows up. Romo only threw 24 passes, but connected on 15 of them (62.5%) for a career-high 345 yds and 4 TDs with only 1 interception. He also ran for 11 yds and 1 TD. The Cowboys defense looked shaky, but Romo was stellar.

QB Tom Brady (NEP): 22 of 28 for 297 yds, 3 TDs and no interceptions. Brady was in mid-season form with a bevy of new weapons at his disposal. He clearly belongs in the “Who’s Hot” list based on his week one performance.
 
QB Josh McNown (OAK): McNown faced his old Lions team and threw 30 of 40 for 313 yards and 2 TDs. Very good, but add in 2 Ints and 3 fumbles in a loss, and it doesn’t seem quite as impressive. But despite the “who’s going to start” distractions, Culpepper’s presence, and Russell’s previous absence, McNown looked good in Oakland, especially as he rallied the Raiders to take a 21-20 lead in the fourth quarter after being down by 17 points. Unfortunately for McNown, Kitna also managed to rally, and the Lions finished the game with 17 unanswered points to win 37 – 21. McNown probably won’t last all season behind center in Oakland (he’s also got a cracked finger bone which may also limit him), but he was solid enough in week one to earn a spot on the Hot list.

Editor Addition: it seems likely that McCown will not be able to go in week 2.
 
QB Jay Cutler (DEN): 23 of 39 for 304 yds, 1 TD, and 1 Interception. Only one TD, but over 300 yards in a 15-14 win, thanks to a Jason Elam field goal following a late drive led by Cutler.

QB Jake Delhomme (CAR): With what might have been considered a shaky hold on the Carolina starting QB role, Delhomme went 18 of 27 for 201 yards, three TDs, and no interceptions against a surprisingly tough pass rush from St Louis. Looks like it will be at least another week before anyone sees Carr with the Panthers starting QB job.

RB Chris Brown (TEN): Brown came off the bench after LenDale White started, and had only 19 of Tennessee’s 48 rushing attempts, but he still managed to rack up 175 yards (a dazzling 9.2 avg.). Unfortunately, he failed to score a TD, but he did have one reception of 3 yards. However, his stellar performance on only one more rushing attempt than White (18 for 66 yds) clearly puts him on the Hot list.

RB Travis Henry (DEN): Henry had 23 carries for 139 yards, and 3 receptions for another 44, but no TDs. However, his strong running confirmed his starting role in Denver, where he should have plenty of opportunity for success, and keeps him on the Hot list.

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN): Chester Taylor started but left with an injury and may never get the starting spot back. Rookie Peterson had 19 carries for 103 yards, and turned a one-yard reception into a 60 yard TD run in his regular-season debut.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SDC): Depending on how you look at it, LT might also fit in the “Dropping” category – he was held by the Bears defense to only 25 rushing yards on 17 carries (for a horrible 1.47 yards per carry).  But he also had a rushing TD, 7 receptions for 51 yds, and even threw one 17 yard TD pass to Antonio Gates. It’s the ability to earn fantasy points in spite of a down rushing day that keeps Tomlinson in the Hot list.

RB Derrick Ward (NYG): This week’s hot waiver-wire commodity was Derrick Ward. In relief duty of an injured Brandon Jacobs, Ward had 13 carries for 89 yards, plus 4 receptions for 27 yds and a TD. With Jacobs still out and Reuben Droughns playing more Fullback, Ward is solidly on the Hot list.

RB Lamont Jordan (OAK): Jordan had 15 carries for 70 yds and a TD, plus 9 receptions for 89 yds. He looked strong against Detroit’s defense, but will face stiffer challenges. However, a strong showing while Dominic Rhodes still has three games to go on his suspension puts Lamont on the Hot list.

WR Plaxico Burress (NYG): Burress had a great night Sunday night, pulling in 8 receptions for 144 yards and 3 TDs. Manning’s shoulder injury may cause some concern, but Burress definitely makes the Hot list after a performance like that.

WR Randy Moss (NEP): Moss played like the Moss of old, with a huge exclamation point. He had 9 receptions for 183 yards and a TD. The Raiders-version of Moss is evidently behind him, and he has found new life in New England. Anyone remember that other ne’er do well, Corey Dillon? Moss was able to beat heavy coverage and appeared to be Tom Brady’s deep target of choice.

WR Ronald Curry (OAK): Just as Moss has shown a revival in New England, Oakland showed a strong passing attack without him. Curry tallied 10 receptions for 133 yds and 1 TD against the Lions with McNown throwing him the ball. But he also suffered a hamstring injury at the end of the game, may eventually have a different QB, and doesn’t get to face the Lions every week. Yet for this week at least, Curry is solidly on the Hot list.

WR Andre Johnson (HOU): With Matt Schaub behind center, Johnson had 7 receptions for 142 yards, including a career-long 77-yard TD. Johnson earned a spot on the Hot list with that showing.

WR Reggie Wayne (IND): Wayne caught 7 passes from Manning for 115 yds and 2 TDs. His main down-point was being stripped of the ball by CB Jason David, which David returned to the end-zone as New Orleans' only TD of the night,, but Wayne got even as both TDs he caught were against David. He basically made David his b….

TE Antonio Gates (SDC): Gates once again lived up to his #1 fantasy Tight End status in week one, catching 9 passes for 107 yards and a TD (thrown by LaDainian Tomlinson). Despite playing the tough Bears defense, Gates was still able to get open almost at will, and again proved to be San Diego’s main receiving threat.

TE Jason Witten (DAL): Tony Romo looked Witten’s way often week one against the Giants, and Witten managed to pull in 6 receptions for 116 yards and a TD in Romo’s career-high game. Still not sure if this was great play by Witten and Romo or exceedingly poor play by the Giant’s secondary. More likely a combo of the two.

PK Mason Crosby (GBP): If you were a kicker and wanted to envision how your first NFL game would go, it would have been the game Crosby had on Sunday, kicking 3 of 3 field goals and 1 extra point. One of the field goals was 53 yards, and another came with 2 seconds left to win the game for the Packers over the Eagles, 16 – 13. A very nice showing in his first regular-season game puts Crosby on the Hot list.

PK Shaun Suisham (WAS): Like Crosby, Suisham was also perfect on his three field goal attempts, and converted a 39-yard one in overtime to win the game for the Redskins.

PK John Carney (JAG): John Carney was signed by the Jaguars to cover for an injured Josh Scobee, who may miss up to 6 – 8 weeks with a quadriceps injury. Going from free agent to a starting kicker is enough to put Carney on the Hot list.

DE DeWayne White (DET): White signed by Detroit in the off-season and delivered big-time against Oakland in the first week, notching 6 tackles, an assist, a sack, one pass defended, an interception, 2 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. While the Lions won’t get to play the Raiders every week, numbers like that earn White a place on the Hot list.

DE Mario Williams (HOU): The Texans passed on Reggie Bush at 1.01 in the 2006 rookie draft to take Mario Williams, and Williams has now started his sophomore season with a performance that shows the Texans, while still questionable, weren’t totally insane. Williams notched his belt with 4 tackles, an assist, 2 sacks, and also recovered a fumble and returned it 38 yards for a TD. At this point in the 2007 season, Williams has more TDs than Reggie Bush, and makes the Hot list.

DE Robert Geathers (CIN): Geathers was the Bengals DE to start in week one. While teammate Justin Smith only had one assist against the Ravens Monday night, Geathers had three tackles, an assist, a sack, two passes defended, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and an interception returned for30 yards. Man, I’m tired just typing all that.

DE Kenyon Coleman (NYJ): Coleman didn’t have some of the flashy stats that other defenders may have had in week one, but he was the leading tackler in the game between the Jets and Patriots, with 10 solo tackles and 2 assists. He’s also the leading tackler from week one for all defensive linemen. That’s a strong enough stat line to earn a spot on the Hot list.

LB Landon Johnson (CIN): Johnson had a great game Monday night against the Ravens. He ended with 6 tackles, 6 assists, a pass defended, and two fumble recoveries, including one for a touchdown. We have to use oven mitts just to write about him.

LB Barrett Ruud (TBB): Ruud enters the Hot list thanks to a game against Seattle in which he hogtied 10 tackles, 3 assists, and also had a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

LB Mike Vrabel (NEP): Vrabel harassed the Jets in week one and notched 6 tackles, an assist, a 1 forced fumble and also a very impressive 2 and 1/2 sacks. If that ain’t hot, then neither am I.

LB Rocky McIntosh (WAS): McIntosh was around the ball a ton in week one against the Dolphins, and even outplayed new teammate London Fletcher-Baker. He ripped off 9 tackles, 3 assists, a sack, and a forced fumble -- A Hot list level game.

LB Nick Barrett (GBP): Nick Barnett barely makes the Hot list, thanks to a dominating game against Philadelphia -- 9 tackles, 4 assists, a pass defended, and an interception. But it’s certainly not the on-field performance that makes it difficult to add him to the list. It’s the two misdemeanor charges that have just been filed regarding a June incident in a nightclub – there’s a strong possibility that it might lead to a suspension at some point.

S Jim Leonhard (BUF): Leonhard came in for an injured Ko Simpson and decided he didn’t like the bench anymore, too many splinters. To prove that to others, he had 8 tackles, 5 assists, a pass defended, and an interception returned for 36 yards. With Simpson out for the year, Leonhard makes the Hot list since he should get plenty of scoring opportunities.

CB Antoine Winfield (MIN): Winfield collected 6 tackles, one pass defended, and an interception returned 14 yards for a TD in week one against the Falcons. His top-tier fantasy performance puts him on the Hot list for week one.

S Madieu Williams (CIN): On Monday night, Williams earned a spot on the Hot list with 7 tackles, 3 assists, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

S Jermaine Phillips (TBB): Phillips makes the Hot list thanks to a week one performance of 8 tackles, 2 assists, and a sack against the Seahawks.

S Gibril Wilson (NYG): Wilson’s 8 tackles, 1 pass defended, and an interception also are enough to add him to our Hot list.

…Or Dropping…

QB Drew Brees (NOS): Was that Drew Brees or Drew Henson playing QB for the Saints on opening night? Only 28 of 41 for 192 yards, no TDs and 2 interceptions. He also lost a fumble in that debacle against an Indianapolis defense that was much tougher than anyone expected.

QB Charlie Frye (SEA): Frye started the game for Cleveland and was dismal – only 4 of 10 for 34 yards and an interception. He was pulled for Derek Anderson in the second half, and has now been traded to Seattle for a sixth round draft pick. From starter to bench rider in another city in less than a week – you can’t drop much faster than that. Almost as fast as Refrigerator Perry falling on a donut.

QB Damon Huard (KCC): 22 of 33 for 168 yards and 2 interceptions. Huard looked befuddled, bewitched, and bewildered, and did nothing to eliminate the debate over the starting QB for the Chiefs.

QB J.P. Losman (BUF): Losman was a dreadful 14 of 21 for 97 yards and an interception in a loss to Denver. But remember that Denver has possibly the best CB tandem in the game, so it is hard to say is this is a sign of things to come, but for now….

QB’s Steve McNair / Kyle Boller (BAL): McNair was 24 of 34 for 203 yards, no TDs, an interception, but also lost three fumbles in a shaky performance against the Bengals before a groin injury left him sidelined in the fourth quarter. Boller came in and reminded everyone why he is not the starter: Only 2 of 6 for 19 yards and an interception in a failed attempt to win it in the final two minutes.

RB Chester Taylor (MIN): Taylor started week one, but suffered an oblique injury and opened the door for Adrian Peterson. Taylor’s 3 attempts for 18 yards (plus 1 reception for 3 yards) was a decent enough start, but it will be hard to keep Peterson off the field after his strong performance.

RB Fred Taylor / Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC): Neither Jacksonville running back had much success in week one against a Titans defense not known for its strength against the run. Jones-Drew only had 7 carries for 32 yards (5 rushes for 9 yards in the first half), and 3 receptions for 28 yards. He also scored no TDs and lost a fumble. Taylor was even more of a dud – he only had 6 attempts for 16 yards.

RB Reuben Droughns (NYG): Droughns was once a starter, but is now filling a fullback role. He managed only 1 carry for 5 yards, even in spite of the loss of starting tailback Brandon Jacobs. With Derrick Ward’s arrival on the Hot list, Droughns must go on the Dropping one.

RB Cedric Benson (CHI): Benson faced a tough Chargers defense and only managed 42 yards on 19 carries (2.2 ypc), and 1 reception for 11 yards. He also lost a fumble as part of the Bear’s 4 turnovers. Benson was finally given sole starting duty after having Thomas Jones in front of him since coming to the Bears, but while he won’t have to face defenses like the Chargers every week, Benson has done little so far to show he can be trusted to carry the load alone with Jones gone.

RB Steven Jackson (STL): High first-round fantasy pick Jackson disappointed in week one, getting only 58 yards off 18 carries, and one pass for 3 yards. He failed to find the end-zone and also lost 2 fumbles. He’s sure to bounce back, for following that performance, he has to go on the Dropping list, and the fumble list, and Santa’s bad list.

WR David Boston (FA): Boston played week one for the Buccaneers, but never had a pass thrown his direction before leaving the game with a foot injury. On top of that, reports have been released that he tested positive for high levels of the sedative ‘GHB’ at the time of his DUI arrest in August, which almost certainly contributed to his release Wednesday by Tampa Bay following an injury settlement. Boston can’t drop any farther in terms of NFL and fantasy value. The world is so against him.

WR Deion Branch (SEA): Branch started and played most offensive downs. But even though QB Matt Hasselbeck attempted 24 passes, Branch was targeted on only 3, and ended the game without a single catch. Coach Holmgren has vowed to make more of an attempt to get Branch the ball, but a complete zero in week one puts Branch on the Dropping list.

WR D.J. Hackett (SEA): On the up-side, Hackett did better than Branch in one way – he at least caught a pass in week one. But on the down-side, that one pass was only for seven yards, and Hackett suffered a high ankle sprain on the play and could be out for at least a month. That down-side not only puts him here, it cements him here for at least a month.

WR Anthony Gonzalez (IND): Rookie Anthony Gonzalez was thought to be a viable fantasy option as the third WR in the Colts’ potent offense. But it sure didn’t happen week one – Gonzales was only targeted once, and didn’t catch a pass all game. Having Peyton Manning as his QB is reason enough to not totally rule out Gonzales, especially in dynasty leagues, but his game one non-performance has to put him on the Dropping list.

WR Eric Moulds (TEN): During the preseason, new free-agent signing Eric Moulds was described as looking “the best of any Tennessee receiver”. It didn’t show on Sunday – Moulds caught all of one pass for four yards. Of course, QB Vince Young only completed 11 passes all game, and only threw 6 passes total in the second half. But that only adds more reason to put Moulds on the Dropping list.

WR Reggie Brown (PHI): Philadelphia’s ‘top’ receiver was held to only one catch for 14 yards in week one. The Green Bay defense played much stronger than expected, and the Eagles made several painful turnovers, but McNabb never found Brown other than once in that loss.

TE Jeremy Stevens (TBB): Stevens saw the field in week one, but didn’t catch a pass although he did record one tackle (of his own teammate, oh well maybe not, but it was close). But he was also found guilty in Arizona of DUI and marijuana possession. He’ll now drop from third string to certainly serving a suspension and may possibly be released. I can see it now, Jeremy, David Boston and Ricky Williams sitting poolside puffing away reminiscing about the “old” days.

TE Chris Cooley (WAS): Cooley was one of the higher-ranked fantasy TE’s, but didn’t catch a pass until the overtime period. He finished the game with only 1 catch for 10 yards. TE scoring is always erratic, but this down week puts Cooley on the Dropping list.

TE Vernon Davis (SFF): Vernon Davis is expected to develop into an upper-tier TE, and has been a high draft pick in dynasty leagues. But he still has not lived up to that yet. In week one, he caught only two passes for a grand total of 4 yards.  Alex Smith looked his way fairly often, but Davis will not be more productive until he is able to break away from coverage. Continue to expect Davis to grow into an elite fantasy option, but this process may take a while. For now, he’s on the Dropping list.

PK Justin Medlock (KCC): Rookie kicker Medlock started week one on Sunday as the kicker for the Chiefs, but went one of two in field goal attempts (made from 27 yards, missed from 30 yards), and was waived by the Chiefs the very next day. He has cleared waivers and been re-signed to the Chiefs practice squad, but this makes Medlock drop below the Mendoza line.

PK Josh Scobee (JAC): With newly signed free agent John Carney on the Hot list in Jacksonville, injured Scobee gets bumped to the Dropping list. Scobee kicked in week one, going one-for-one on field goals and kicking an extra point, but he is now expected to miss up to eight weeks.

DE Osi Umenyiora (NYG): Umenyiora started week one against the Cowboys, but suffered an injury that was initially thought to be an ankle injury and he left the field in the first quarter without having recorded a single tackle. It turned out that he had damaged his knee, and reports have listed him as likely to be out for a month or two, or possibly only a few weeks. In either case, his absence will hurt the Giants, as well as IDP owners, and earns him a spot on the Dropping list.

DE Gaines Adams (TBB): Buccaneers rookie Adams was benched at the last minute before the game against Seattle. He ended up scoring only one assist. Adams was a high IDP rookie pick and will likely have a very successful career, but for now, behind Greg Spires, Adams is Dropping like a stone..

DE Dwight Freeney (IND): While teammate Robert Mathis recorded a sack, four tackles, an assist, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in the opening game against the Saints, Freeney scored only one tackle all game. That’s enough of a disappointment to move Freeney to the Dropping list.

DE Derrick Burgess (OAK): Burgess had earned the most sacks in the NFL over the last two years, but had hernia surgery in the off-season. He did play in week one against the Lions offensive line, who gave up 62 sacks of Jon Kitna last year. Put those two facts together and what do you get? I tackle. Can anyone say Dropping list?

DT Jason Ferguson (DAL): Ferguson injured his elbow in week one after earning only 1 assist, and soon after, left the game against the Giants. After the game it was announced he tore his bicep muscle and will have season-ending surgery this Friday, putting him out for the rest of the 2007 season. He was placed on Injured Reserve on Wednesday.

LB Coy Wire (BUF): Bills LB Wire was named a starter for week one because of an injury to Keith Ellison. But Wire only had one assist before suffering an injury himself in the game against the Broncos. Now it seems that the injury (torn or sprained MCL, depending on the source) may keep him sidelined for 4 – 6 weeks, and adds him to our Dropping list.

LB Anthony Spencer (DAL): Spencer got the start in week one over an injured Greg Ellis, but only managed one assist for the game. Dismal enough to make the Dropping list.

LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (STL): Tinoisamoa started week one at WLB for the Rams, but only compiled 2 tackles and one assist before spraining his ankle in the fourth quarter. He is questionable for week two, and isn’t much of a force even when he’s in – putting him on the Dropping list.

LB Keith Bulluck (TEN): Bullock is typically an early pick in most IDP leagues, but week one against the Jaguars saw him only get three tackles total. That much of a drop-off from a top-tier LB is enough to include him on the Dropping list.

CB Jason David (NOS): In some scoring formats, David was a top DB in week one, thanks to 4 tackles, 1 pass defended, and most notably, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery returned for 55 yards and the Saints’ only TD of the night. But David was also burned all night, and gave up three touchdowns in coverage of the Colts. You have to wonder how long he will have a job after that performance. That’s enough to consider him for the Dropping list.

S Mike Brown (CHI): Although Brown had a very strong game against the Chargers in week one (2 tackles, 2 assists, a fumble recovery, 2 passes defended, and an interception returned for 27 yards), he also suffered a torn ACL and has been placed on Injured Reserve for the remainder of the year.

S Ko Simpson (BUF): Starting FS scored all of one tackle before breaking an ankle in week one’s game against the Broncos. He’s since been placed on Injured Reserve and will miss the rest of the 2007 season.

S Jason Simmons (HOU): In yet another hit to Houston’s safety position, Simmons has been placed on Injured Reserve following a torn tendon in his knee during week one’s game against the Chiefs. He gets added to our Dropping list for week one and joins Glenn Earl on the Texans sidelines for the rest of 2007.

S LaRon Landry (WAS): Landry was typically one of the early rookie IDPs drafted in most dynasty leagues, and was given the starting SS slot for the Redskins. His first week led to only one tackle and two assists. Between the play of Rocky McIntosh and London Fletcher-Baker, no one was making it to Landry’s level. Not a horrible beginning for a rookie, and sure to improve, but enough of a dampening of expectations to put him on the Dropping list, at least for this week.

…And Trends

Now let’s look a little deeper into the numbers to see what trends we can find.  We’ll start week one trend analysis with a look at the life-blood of fantasy football: The running backs and they’re rushing results. 

First, several of these names were already mentioned in the “Who’s Hot…” section, but here were the week’s leaders in rushing yardage:

The “RB1” is defined as whichever back ended up with the mot carries for the week for each team.  We can also look at the leaders in rushing average (yards per attempt):

One concern among fantasy footballers is that more and more NFL teams will go with multiple-backs, splitting carries and reducing the number of the RB workhorse studs who can carry a fantasy roster.  While one week in the NFL is not enough data to clearly define trends, let’s still take at look at the numbers from week one for the “RB1’s” and see if there are any hints that we can see. 

One thing to look at is the number of carries the RB1 got versus the total overall rushing attempts the team had.  This table is the thirty-two RB1’s listed in order of Attempt percentage – the number of carries that the RB1 had against the team’s overall rushing attempts:

While it is very hard to make concrete conclusions from this table, it still provides some interesting information. 

Green Bay’s Brandon Jackson was the week one leader in terms of carrying the load for his team.  Even though he only had 15 carries, they account for 88.2% of the team’s 17 total rushing attempts.  At the other end of the scale, Tennessee’s Chris Brown’s 19 carries led to a league-leading 175 rushing yards, but those 19 carries accounted for only 38.8% of the Titans’ 49 rushing attempts.  With his success in yardage, it seems reasonable to expect his carry percentage to go up, but this also illustrates that a RB doesn’t necessarily have to be “the lone workhorse” to have substantial fantasy success.

In addition, notice how second place was held by another Jackson – the Rams’ Steven Jackson.  His 18 attempts were 85.7% of St. Louis’ rushing attack.  But we put Steven Jackson in the “Dropping” list because even though he got the vast majority of the carries, he had little success with them. Getting the ball is only part of the process.

Another way to look at things is to compare percentages – It’s a little like comparing apples and oranges, but we can look at the difference between the percentages as an indication of how effective a running back was.  In a ‘perfect’ balance, a RB who carried 60% of the time should get 60% of the yards, for example.  A higher difference indicates more success than the team average, and a negative difference points to a RB who struggled compared to others who carried the ball.  For example the Titans’ Chris Brown had only 38.8% of the carries, but his 175 yards accounted for 62.1% of the Titans 282 rushing yards.  In his case we see a positive difference of 23.3% -- this shows that he was very successful with the touches he got compared to the rest of the rushing attempts from the team. 

Here is the list of RB1’s sorted by percent difference: