Can he do it again?

As all fantasy owners know, Running Backs are key to the success of your fantasy team, which is usually why they create such heated debate in the off-season. Look at some of the most discussed RBs this off-season; Ronnie Brown, Laurence Maroney, Michael Turner, Julius Jones, not to mention all of the rookies, but for the purposes of this article, we will be looking at The Bucs RB Earnest Graham.

Graham came out of relative obscurity last season when The Caddy was put into the shop once again, to put up very respectable numbers; 898 yards rushing, 324 yards receiving and 10 TDs.

Some expect him to better these numbers and of course some do not, lol, hence it is why we are here.

Two of those crazy staffers at The Whiz just couldn’t agree on his value, so they face off here to try to convince you one way or the other. So after reading this you too can decide if Earnest Graham is a good value or not….

So without further ado, we bring you The Great Debate: RB Earnest Graham, as told to you by Bill Cervi and Jim Day.

(8) Forum Discussion

Bill Cervi says YES:

If Rodney Dangerfield was a football player his name would be Earnest Graham. Why you say? Because he gets no respect, no respect at all I tell you. I know that Graham was an unknown commodity last year and some may think he was a 1 year wonder but I feel that his production in 2007 was not a fluke and that he will be a RB worthy of consideration in your 2008 drafts. My top 5 reasons are as follows;
 
1. Earnest Graham finished the 2007 season as the #10 RB in most PPR leagues and #12 RB in most regular leagues. Not too bad for any NFL RB, but when you consider he accomplished this while starting in only 10 games, it is quite impressive. This is just one reason why I expect him to match last years numbers when given the chance to start for a complete season as Tampa’s primary ball carrier.
 
2. Graham is signed, happy and in camp. While Graham’s contract may not seem like a starting RB contract, I feel the Bucs are just being conservative with the extension as they would like to see a little more before opening the vault.
 
3. Tampa has a very solid, young offensive line which should only improve upon their 2007 numbers (117 yards a game, 4.2 yd per carry) since they are returning all of their lineman from last year and they added veteran leader Jeff Faine (C).
 
4. The Tampa backfield may seem a bit crowded at the moment with Graham, Dunn, Caddy and Bennett, but Graham is the best overall RB on the team. Dunn (33) is the biggest threat to Graham's numbers this year but he was brought back to give the Bucs a veteran presence in the backfield and projects only as a solid change of pace back. Caddy is still recovering and he will stay in the garage to start the season and will most likely end up on the PUP list.
 
5. The skill positions are far from glamorous but they are good enough to keep Defenses honest and Gruden's creativity and complex offensive schemes will provide the rest of the team’s opportunities. (Garcia’s contract situation should be watched closely)
 
2008 Projection: Graham will receive all of Tampa's goal line work, the bulk of their carries (225-250 carries), and at least 60-70% of the third down situations. That projects to 225-250 carries, 1,000 to 1,050 yards, 40 receptions, 275-300 yards receiving and 10+ TDs. I think he will be a solid #2 RB with some upside and he represents great draft day value as he has been falling to the 4th or 5th round in many of the 12 man mock drafts I have done this off season.

Jim Day says NO:

Now I don’t want to come off as a hard ass, because Graham had a very nice season for TB in 2007, but I just don’t think he will repeat that performance, nor do I think the team will repeat theirs.

Let’s remember this is the same Bucs team and HC that won the NFC South in 2005 only to land in last place in 2006. I see the same type of drop this year. 4 of their key players, WR Joey Galloway, DB Ronde Barber, LB Derrick Brooks and QB Jeff Garcia, are all over 33 years old, pretty much ancient in the NFL and Galloway is coming off off-season surgery. At 37, it is not always easy to come back from injuries.

I bring up Galloway because the team is not the same when Galloway is not in the lineup, and if he misses anytime at all, defenses will key on Graham or whoever is the main back at the time.

The team showed some subtle signs of not being totally enamored with Graham themselves. First they brought in former Falcon RB Warrick Dunn, who while he is getting up there in years, can still be effective as an explosive runner, as opposed to Graham who is a hard nosed power back. Then they sign Graham to an extension that is not considered the norm for starting RBs. Finally there are the constant updates that Caddy may be able to play this year. Not really sold on this last one myself, but if it does happen, then he becomes the starter.

Now add in the fact that starting QB Jeff Garcia is complaining about his contract and hinting that he may just sit out the season and the turmoil is there for a down season for the team. Of course this could all become a moot point if the team trades for Brett Favre as many are rumoring. At this point it is hard to figure the run game is Favre becomes the gunslinger for TB.

So I guess this is not so much a put down of Graham and his chances as much as it is a doubt that the entire team can produce the same, or better, results in 2008.

There are too many questions on this team for me to want to invest in Graham as my #2 RB, and definitely not my #1. 

2008 Projection: Decreased chances due to the incoming of Dunn, the age of some of the top TB players and the uncertainness at the QB position are all reasons I will stay away from Graham in 2008. I am looking at about 200 total touches for about 850 yards and 6 TDs. With these numbers, he is not worth his current average draft position. Let another owner take him that early and pay the heavy price.