A common Fantasy Football axiom maintains that many wide receivers will break out in their third season. It turns out that this is actually true.

As yours truly wrote in the Fantasy Football Authority magazine last year, most non-rookie breakout receivers actually display a trend toward success in the previous seasons. The trick, of course, is spotting the trends and common situations, such as a change in the depth chart, that can make the difference and let you find a mid-to-late round steal.

Focusing on those famous, and in some cases infamous third-year receivers; 31 wideouts were drafted in 2005. Some are not currently on any active rosters, others have proven to be role players or flat-out disappointments. And some, a precious minority, have developed to the point that they appear ready to break out and help you win next year's league trophy.

So please follow along with Adam Lasik's breakdown of the 2005 WR draft class. >>Read More>>

1. Braylon Edwards is in a classic position to break out. He has struggled some with injury, but managed to play in all 16 games last year, starting 15. Edwards has had some inconsistency and ineffectiveness at the quarterback position, but the Browns have improved the offensive line and running back positions, which bodes well for Edwards to get more opportunities to get open downfield.
   
   Edwards posted 884 yards and 6 touchdowns last season, which is a very promising number. The combination of his own improvement with the upgrades at other positions bodes well for Edwards in 2007.
   
   
2. Stay clear of Troy Williamson.
   
   Sure, he improved his yardage slightly from his rookie campaign, but there are serious reasons to be very afraid of overvaluing the Viking. First, of course, is that he's a Viking, and as much as I like Tarvaris Jackson as a future prospect, I don't think he's going to dominate the NFL this season. Consider also that Troy Williamson had, bar none, the worst hands in the entire NFL last season. No, seriously... on 78 targets, he hauled in just 37 passes and posted a whopping 11 drops. Such a disappointing 2006 will all but certainly result in a new #1 receiver. That receiver may be recently-signed free agent Bobby Wade, or someone not yet on the team.
   
   You can't argue with Williamson's raw talent, but he simply has now displayed the skills you want from a breakout stud.
   
   Now, there is a caveat to the Williamson story. On March 14, the St Paul Pioneer Press reported that Williamson went through an extensive battery of tests at Nike headquarters on his eyes (yes, they do have eye specialists there - surprised me, too!) . They tested eye-hand coordination, eye strength, whether one eye was stronger than the other, and so on. Apparently, they found several areas that they feel their program can dramatically improve, which could have an immediate impact on Williamson's dropped passes in 2007.
   
   
3. The third receiver taken in the 2005 draft was the venerable Mike Williams. Let's just say that Williams was available to play all year, got in just eight games, and managed a paltry 8 receptions for 99 yards and just one touchdown.
   
   It's worth noting that seven of those receptions and 92 of those yards came in the final three games of the season, which means the Lions started trusting him enough to play him and throw at him. However, with Roy Williams on the team and the Lions hot after another receiver of two, such as Kevin Curtis, as of the time of this article, things don't look great for Williams' situation.
   
   
4. Matt Jones is a cautious "buy" recommendation here. That said, someone else will probably value him much higher than I would, so if you're like me you won't have Matt Jones on your team.
   
   Jones showed some nice progression from 432 yards in 2005 to 643 in 2006. That's the sort of trending you want to see, but the Jaguars are notoriously disappointed in their receivers and are rumored to be trying to trade for a #1 wideout. Add to that the fact that Byron Leftwich and his incredibly long throwing motion has been declared the starting quarterback, and Jones will more likely see a subtle progression to about 700-750 yards than a sudden jump into the 1000+ territory. Still, Jones' size and speed remain the x-factors in his development. If he learns to use his physical gifts fully and continues to improve as receiver, Jones remains a strong fantasy prospect. Just don't reach too high for him...
   
   
5. I admit that I wasn't a believer in Mark Clayton last year. Simply put, he proved me wrong. He progressed beautifully from 471 yards in 2005 to 939 in 2006. He's smallish and won't likely be a top red-zone target, so don't expect anything like double-digit touchdowns, but he should clear 70 receptions and break the 1000-yard barrier this year.
   
   The biggest areas of concern for Clayton are the Ravens' offensive line without Edwin Mulitalo, Tony Pashos, and possibly Jonathan Ogden, questions at fullback without Ovie Mughelli, and the transition of Willis McGahee into the Ravens' offensive scheme. These are some serious questions, because if the Pro Bowler Ogden retires, the Ravens have lost both tackles and a good quality guard, as well as a solid fullback - none of whom are all that easily replaced.
   
   Don't expect him to be a top-5 and probably not a top-10 receiver, but Clayton makes for some very nice depth if you can get him late enough to be a value pick.
   
   
6. Roddy White did not show any significant progression from his rookie season to year two, and actually started fewer games. Now add in Joe Horn and a new coach, and I'm honestly not expecting to see much from Roddy White in year-3. He may be a nice one to watch on the waiver wire, but unless you're in a really deep league he really isn't high on the list of sleepers on which to spend a draft pick.
   
   
7. The return of Donovan McNabb and likely departure of Donte' Stallworth are both good for Reggie Brown. Brown followed a solid rookie campaign with a very nice 816 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2006. His ability to get open downfield and make things happen clearly improved, resulting in an increase in average yards per reception from 13.3 in 2005 to an impressive 17.7 last year. He will need to increase his receptions to reach the next level, but look for Brown to make strides toward being a true #1 receiver this year.
   
   
8. Bears fans insist that Mark Bradley has all the tools to be a superb receiver, and he is certainly talented. However, his ability to stay on the field and make his presence known while he is there is anything from certain. In 10 games last season, he started none and posted only 14 total reception for 282 yards.
   
   Bradley has speed, some nice vision after the catch, and pretty good hands. If we're making a list of deep sleepers, he would probably be on it. However, if you're looking for a receiver that presents a good value with some decent confidence of breaking out in year-3, Bradley isn't it.
   
   He's another "keep an eye on him on the waiver wire" type of guy, but unlikely to be the type of player you want to use a draft pick to grab.
   
   
9. Some people like Roscoe Parrish, but I don't expect to pick him up anywhere. Parrish finished the season with a nice 6-reception performance, but what gets lost in the shuffle are the facts that he managed only 50 yards on those 6 catches, and went three games without a single reception before the season finale. Parrish will likely remain too deep on the depth chart to get or be worth your attention.
   
   
10. Terrence Murphy was showing some promise before a neck injury forced him from football. He is not currently in the league, so you'd be best advised to not draft him.
    
    
11. Vincent Jackson finds himself in a very nice situation. The veteran Keenan McCardell is no longer with the team, and Eric Parker was a bit of a disappointment last year. The Chargers still have Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson, but they are excited about Jackson's improvement as a receiver and a red-zone threat. He is big, strong, and showed last year that he is learning how to use his body effectively to gain a significant advantage over defensive backs. Look for him to be the top WR option this year, and put up some solid fantasy numbers. He won't lead the league in receptions or yards, but expect him to show some dramatic improvement in both categories and post 8-10 touchdowns.
    
    
12. Thrust into a starting role by default during his rookie season, Courtney Roby was unimpressive, but adequate. He followed with a dismal 2-reception season, though, and is not someone you want to draft.
    
    His situation has improved with the departures of Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, but don't hold your breath looking for Roby to be handed a starting job.
    
    
13. Such potential, but if he keeps getting arrested Chris Henry is going to be a huge disappointment. At 6-4 and with excellent control of his body, Chris Henry makes a great red-zone threat, catching 9 touchdowns in just 13 games. However, with Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh in Cincinnati, Henry is unlikely to break the 1000-yard mark. Still, with all that scoring potential in a pass-happy offense, he's worth a late pick if you can get him.
    
    
14. Brandon Jones is a better pick than teammate Courtney Roby, and has the opportunity to not only start, but fight for the #1 job in Tennessee.
    
    David Givens was a disappointment in 2006, and Jones finished the season with seven-straight starts. Jones will need to improve dramatically to be worth your draft pick, but he is primed to see a jump in his stats. To be honest, though, he strikes me more as a player to keep on the radar for 2008.
    
    
15. Jerome Mathis - No. Don't do it. He's a decent kick returner if healthy, but isn't going to be a top-flite receiver any time soon.
    
    
16. Craphonso Thorpe - Great name. Can't catch.
    
    
17. Chase Lyman - Zero receptions in two years should have you asking... who?
    
    
18. Fred Gibson - Wasn' t on a roster in 2005, and posted jack with Miami last year. Now he's on the Falcons' roster and won't do anything there, either.
    
    
19. The third Titans' receiver drafted in 2005 was Roydell Williams. He's still a Titan, but won't likely get above the WR4 slot, if he even makes the team this year.
    
    
20. Airese Currie - Cool name. Doesn't play.
    
    
21. Larry Brackins - He was drafted as a raw talent and was considered a project. He's still a project and has yet to break onto an active roster.
    
    
22. Rasheed Marshall - See Jerome Mathis, except without the "decent kick returner" part. Marshall actually boasts NEGATIVE yardage in both receiving and rushing after two years in the league. 1 reception for -1 yard, and 1 rush for -7. Brilliant!
    
    
23. Chad Owens - After two years not catching anything in Jacksonville, he will now not catch anything in Tampa Bay.
    
    
24. Tab Perry - See a trend here? 5^th+ round receivers usually suck. Perry's in a lousy situation as the 4^th or 5^th receiver in Cincinnati. He has nice size, but has not had much opportunity to use it, and won't get many chances. He did okay as a kick returner in 2005, much like the aforementioned Jerome Mathis, and also much like Mathis he appeared in only two games last year and did nothing much.
    
    
25. Dante Ridgeway - 2 receptions for the Jets in 2005. Zip for the Saints last year. Just say no.
    
    
26. Craig Bragg has yet to post a single stat. He was drafted by the Packers, but didn't make the team. The Bears, who needed a receiver, grabbed him and left him off the active roster. Leave him off of yours, too.
    
    
27. Marcus Maxwell - No stats for the 49ers in two years. Allow me to repeat - the 49ers.
    
    
28. Paris Warren - At least he got on the field last year, but his 5 receptions for 63 yards are hardly awe-inspiring.
    
    
29. LeRon McCoy - The Cardinals have 3 pretty good first-round receivers. McCoy simply isn't going to do anything in Arizona. Coincidentally, he didn't do ANYTHING last year after somehow managing four starts and 18 receptions in 2005.
    
    
30. Harry Williams - This guy's most impressive stat is that he shares his name with a Pulitzer prize winner who wrote Huey Long's biography. Well, almost - that guy has a T in front of the Harry part.
    
    
31. The wide receiver edition of Mr Irrelevant is... J.R. Russell. And he fits the name well.

So, to sum up: the top-5 third-year receivers worth your attention on draft day are:

1. Braylon Edwards
2. Mark Clayton
3. Vincent Jackson
4. Reggie Brown
5. Chris Henry

Of course, these guys will likely be drafted because their names are known and out there. But the fact remains that most third-year breakout receivers aren't no-name shockers, so this is to be expected. If you're looking for sleepers, you're going to want to target names more like Matt Jones, Brandon Jones, or maybe a Mark Bradley or Roddy White, with a Troy Williamson or even Roscoe Parrish and the like standing as really, REALLY long-shots.

Good shooting!