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(1) Forum Discussion

QUARTERBACK

Start ‘Em

Donovan McNabb, PHI
Mr. Chunky Soup has had a rougher start to this season than many envisioned, but this week all things are forgiven. McNabb will be facing a QB-friendly Minnesota defense that has allowed an average of 300 yards passing a game for the season. With Reggie Brown slowly starting to wake up from what can only be described as a 5 week coma from a fantasy perspective, expect the Eagles passing attack to be at full force. It doesn’t hurt either that Brian Westbrook looks to be healthy.

Brian Griese, CHI
Two straight 300+ yard passing games and 6 TDs in the past 3 weeks makes Griese a very exciting play this week against a Detroit defense that has been thrown on all season long. The Lions are allowing an average of 2 passing TDs per game. With Chicago slowly coming to the realization that Cedric Benson isn’t any good, expect Lovie Smith to allow Griese to air it out with confidence this week. 275 yards and 2 TDs are reasonable expectations.

Derek Anderson, CLE
Anderson is going to be considered one of the best waiver wire pick ups of 2007. He continues to put up good numbers, despite playing some tough defenses (Baltimore and New England) recently. In week 6 against Miami, Anderson torched the ‘fins for 3 touchdowns and 245 yards passing. This week, against the other winless team (St. Louis), expect another aerial attack. Jamal Lewis should be back in action, but instead of using him to pound away, the Browns will likely use him as a decoy to set up their explosive passing attack. Yes, the Browns have an explosive passing attack. I can’t believe it either.

Deep Start ‘Em

Chad Pennington, NYJ
Last week, I was trying to get the Pennington bandwagon rolling again. Hopefully, I was able enough to convince a few of you who may have enjoyed his 272 yard 3 TD performance. This week, I’m still a believer, but primarily for deeper leagues. In week 4, Pennington enjoyed a 32-39 performance netting 290 yards in Buffalo. Now that he is back home, where the fans will most assuredly be harsher, expect the numbers to dwindle a bit. The consistent pressure to get Kellen Clemens into the game could start to show. Pennington was named the starter on Wednesday, but it doesn’t mean Clemens won’t see some action. I think Eric Mangini is going to give him one more game, so expecting 225 yards and a score seems to be about right.

Marc Bulger, STL
I’ll wait until the laughter stops. Ok, now that it’s out of your system, it has to be said that the Browns defense has allowed 2.8 passing TDs per game and have shown the ability to stop no one at all this year. Sure, they’re 3-3 and much improved, but they are winning with a high scoring offense and I expect this game to be no different. Bulger might, I repeat, might, have Steven Jackson back in some role this week, and still has some talented WRs. This could be the highest scoring game of the week, which means, that Bulger would have to have at least a respectable week. This is his last chance.

Trent Edwards, BUF
The Jets have allowed at least one passing touchdown every week (averaging 1.6). In Edwards' first full game, he threw for 234 yards and a score on 22 of 28 passing against the Jets. His TD pass to TE Michael Gaines in the 4th quarter of that game remains his only passing touchdown of his young career. Edwards still has the confidence of the coaching staff as J.P. Losman continues to be healthy, yet still on the bench. Buffalo will continue to play their rookie for the time being, and this week, in deeper leagues, he’s worth taking a gamble on.

Sit ‘Em

Quinn Gray, JAC
There is no reason to rush to the waiver wire to add Gray. None whatsoever. He completed 37% of his passes on Monday Night Football and most of his incomplete passes weren’t even close to the target. We’re talking about missing by 10+ yards at times. It was ugly. This week he goes on the road to Tampa Bay. If you own the Buccaneer defense, this would be a great week to use them.

Jason Campbell, WAS
There’s no doubt that the much-improved Redskins and Campbell, except for that aberration called week 7, will want to prove to the world that they’re a legit franchise by upsetting the New England Patriots. Unfortunately, it’s just not going to happen. If this game stays close, it will be by Washington pounding the run, getting after the quarterback defensively, and using their safeties to lock up Randy Moss & Co.. Campbell should be overwhelmed in this one.

Cleo Lemon, MIA
I like Cleo Lemon. He’s just running into a tough string of games. After looking not-so-good against New England, Lemon has to go up against a red hot New York Giants team. He’s scored 3 rushing TDs in the past two games making him more valuable than his passing numbers would lead you to believe. Now that Ronnie Brown is out for the year, he’ll probably get even more looks at the goal line; but against this Giants defensive line, Lemon would be better off throwing more often than not. He’s going to have an uphill battle with almost no offensive weapons.

RUNNING BACK

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Marshawn Lynch, BUF
Only once this season have the Jets allowed a team to rush for less than 90 yards, and it was against the Bills and Lynch in week 4. Since then, the Jets have gone on to allow three straight 100 yard rushing performances and let Kenny Watson rack up 3 TDs while running all over them. Lynch has been one of the leagues most consistent, yet unspectacular, running backs. He is still searching for the first 100 yard game of his career, and I would expect to see him get it here. He’ll most certainly improve in his second look against a weak run defense.

Kevin Jones, DET
On one hand, the Chicago defense isn’t nearly as strong as it was last year. There are too many injuries in that unit. On the other hand, we have Kevin Jones who barely avoided the PUP list himself at the end of training camp, and has worked very hard just to get to this point. What it all adds up to is a breakout performance by Jones. Last week, Jones had 21 touches (15 carries, 6 receptions) for 110 combined yards and a TD. Expect him to continue to improve as the season progresses, but this should be his coming out party.

Brandon Jacobs, NYG
Since coming back from injury in week 5, Jacobs has been extremely effective amassing 293 yards and 2 TDs while sharing carries with Reuben Droughns and Derrick Ward. Miami has gotten much better against the run in the last three weeks, but they were playing pass happy teams. This week, I expect the Giants to run a pretty balanced attack between Plaxico Burress andtheir running trio. Jacobs will continue to make a case for regaining the role of feature running back. Expect 80-100 yards with a TD.

Deep Start ‘Em

DeShawn Wynn, GB
While Green Bay is hardly the place you want to look for a premier fantasy running back, Wynn has proven to be a fantasy grinder. He’s not flashy, but he’s been getting the job done of late with TDs in each of his last two games. This week, the Packers will head to Denver and get the weakest rushing defense in the league (allowing an average of 156 yards per game). While Green Bay remains a pass first system, Wynn, not Brandon Jackson or Vernand Morency, is the running back of choice. He’s getting double digit carries on a regular basis in a committee situation. In deep leagues, he is a must play. In some situations, based on bye weeks and injuries, he could even be valuable in some shallow formats.

Steven Jackson, STL
Everything tells me I should wait to see him play before I recommend him; however, I can’t help but think that he should excel in this matchup. In deeper leagues, he’s too good to not take the risk if you’re in need. Just like for Bulger, the Rams are going to be able to put up points on the Browns. Every other team in the league has been able to, so why shouldn’t they? Every single week the Browns have allowed a 100 yard rusher. I wouldn’t expect Jackson to get enough carries to break the century mark, but he could finish in the 60-80 yard range if he split with Brian Leonard.

Kenton Keith, IND
With the news breaking that Indianapolis will be employing a two RB system for the time being, Keith’s value should increase substantially. It doesn’t mean that he will suddenly be having more of those 100 yard efforts, but to see him register 40-60 yards rushing and 20-40 receiving on a weekly basis with the occasional score. This week against Carolina those numbers are reasonable expectations. In the three games in which Carolina faced a two back system (Houston without Ahman Green, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay) the secondary back averaged 55 yards rushing. For deep leagues only.

Sit ‘Em

Cedric Benson, CHI
As I mentioned before, Cedric Benson is not good. I never understood why the Bears felt they should let go of Thomas Jones in the offseason especially with Benson being completely unproven at the NFL level. This week, the Bears are going against a Detroit Lions defense that teams have been able to pass on at will with the last two QBs throwing for 300 yards against them. Don’t expect Benson to get more than 15-18 carries at best.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
Jones-Drew is going to fall subject to the Quinn Gray Rule. “When a team loses their starting quarterback, and must replace him with a clearly inadequate substitute, all offensive players suffer a significant drop in fantasy value.” Unfortunately, without David Garrard, the Jacksonville receiving corps has been exposed for the substantially below average group they are. This means that Jacksonville’s running attack will be subject to constant attention. Going on the road to face a tough Tampa Bay defense won’t help matters either. Don’t expect much.

Kenny Watson, CIN
Do not expect him to throw up another 3 TD performance this week. It’s not happening. Watson lit up the Jets last week, but this week faces a stout Pittsburgh run defense that prides itself on not having allowed a 100 yard rusher since Edgerrin James in week 12 of 2005. Expecting more than 50 yards would be a stretch, and being that the Steelers have allowed only a single rushing TD on the season, I wouldn’t expect him to score. The Bengals will try to attack through the air as usual.

WIDE RECEIVER

Start ‘Em

Hines Ward, PIT
Last week, Ward saw in-game action for the first time since week 3 and came back with a vengeance (well as much of one as you can have in the run first Pittsburgh offense) with 7 receptions for 78 yards. He was targeted 12 times and now is only one target behind Santonio Holmes for the team lead for the season despite missing those three weeks. Expect Ward to continue to get a lot of looks. His best value is in PPR or yardage leagues but he is a must start against the hapless Cincinnati defense in all formats.

Bernard Berrian, CHI
As mentioned before, Chicago is going to try and light up the skies against the Lions. If they’re able to do it, Berrian will be the biggest beneficiary. The last time the Lions played the Bears (week 4) Berrian had 8 receptions and 99 yards after being targeted 14 times. All three of those are season highs. Expect similar results this week and you won’t be disappointed.

Ronald Curry, OAK
Tennessee is a run stopping machine, which means the Raiders and Duante Culpepper are going to have to go to the air. The Titans defense has allowed at least 55 yards to every opposing top receiver. They have also allowed 4 TDs to wide receivers in the past two games. Curry is clearly the most targeted Oakland WR (he’s currently leading the team by 15 targets) so expecting him to finish in the 70-90 yard range and a score is reasonable. It seems to add up so easily I am almost concerned, but there is no reason to bench Curry this week. Get him in the lineup.

Deep Start ‘Em

Ken Walter and Andre Davis, HOU
Check out these numbers over the past four weeks: Walter has 29 receptions for 401 yards and a score while Davis has 16 receptions for 314 yards and 2 TDs. The Texans are doing ok in Andre Johnson’s absence. With either Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels at QB, these two wide outs should have success on the road against San Diego. Both are fringe shallow leaguers, but they are both must starts in deeper leagues.

Marty Booker, MIA
Sure, the Chambers trade looks like it will get Ted Ginn, Jr. and Derek Hagan more playing time and an increase in value, but someone has to be a veteran presence on the field… especially with an inexperienced QB. Booker is the reliable option that Lemon will continue to look for. Last week, in the first game of the post-Chambers era, Booker was targeted more times than any other receiver. The Giants defense doesn’t suggest a great match up, but in deep leagues there are a lot worse options.

Sit ‘Em

Joey Galloway, TB
Jacksonville has done a great job this year at shutting down WRs. The Jaguars have kept every opposing top receiver out of the end zone and have only allowed a total of 141 yards to receivers thus far. Galloway has been a present surprise, but avoid him this week in leagues where TDs are scored heavily.

Marques Colston & Devery Henderson, NO
Is it time to give up on Colston completely? No, but it’s getting tough to count on him for even a mediocre performance at this point. Against San Francisco he may seem like a pretty safe play, but think again. The 49ers are allowing less than 1 receiving TD per game. Henderson hasn’t been able to live up to the preseason hype of “super sleeper” either. Both Colston and Henderson are now fighting for attention on their own team, let alone the national spotlight. Aside from Colston and Henderson, Lance Moore and David Patten have stolen targets as all four receivers have fallen in the 10-17 targets range over the past four weeks.

TIGHT END

Start ‘Em

Dallas Clark, IND
Clark has scored at least once for 5 straight weeks now (6 total TDs). He’s certainly gained Peyton Manning’s trust, and proved to be a viable option in Marvin Harrison’s absence. He’s averaged 5.75 targets per game and is Manning’s most targeted receiver in the red zone (2.0 per game). Yes, more than Harrison or Reggie Wayne. Don’t expect anything different against Carolina.

Heath Miller, PIT
Big Ben Roethlisberger continues to use his group of TEs as a receiving option more than any other QB. Of his 13 TD passes, 8 have been thrown to TEs. That’s 61%. Even big name TEs like Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez don’t get that much attention. Only Washington’s TEs (mainly Chris Cooley) have a larger percentage of the starting QB’s passing touchdowns; but, that’s more telling of Jason Campbell’s total (5) than his TEs (4). As I was saying, Heath Miller is a great play this week against Cincinnati. As the Bengals try to bring up safeties against the run, look for Miller to slip through the cracks on play-action.

Randy McMichael, STL
There’s not a ton of reason to like McMichael for the long haul this season, but this week he goes up against one of the two teams that has averaged more than 1 TD allowed to TEs per game: the Cleveland Browns. McMichael has been targeted more than any receiver not named Tory Holt in the redzone for St. Louis and should see a couple of looks this week.

Deep Start ‘Em

Donald Lee, GB
With Brett Favre gun slinging at QB there are plenty of balls to be caught. This week, the Packers face off against the Denver Broncos, or, the other defense that gives up an average of at least 1 TD to TEs. Lee has been targeted more often than his counterpart Bubba Franks, and with Franks missing this week’s game with an injury, expect Lee to get plenty of chances to score.

Kyle Brady, NE
After scoring a TD in two straight games while Ben Watson was sidelined, I would say it’s safe to assume that Tom Brady has found a new red zone favorite… at least for the time being. This week, Watson is still looking like a scratch (though who can ever tell with New England) which makes Brady an interesting pick up. In leagues that reward more favorably for TDs than yardage, Brady is a good play.

Tony Scheffler, DEN
Scheffler has improved 3 straight weeks now, and with Javon Walker likely out until December, he could become the Broncos’ second best receiving threat. Daniel Graham is still the starting TE, but it looks as if he’ll be used primarily as a blocker with his production dropping since Scheffler’s return. Feel free to get the 6’6” Scheffler into your lineup against a defense that has allowed the second most receptions and yards to TEs this season (Green Bay).

Sit ‘Em

Marcedes Lewis, JAX
In accordance to the Quinn Gray Rule, Lewis loses a lot of value. So far, he’s only been middle of the pack at best, but this week, on the road against a Tampa Bay team that has essentially shut down the TE position (averaging 34 yards allowed and 0.1 TD), he’s unplayable.

Owen Daniels, HOU
Last week Daniels streak of 50+ yards receiving was snapped at 5 games. After building up a nice rapport with Matt Schaub, Daniels went nearly unnoticed under the guidance of Sage Rosenfels totaling 20 yards on 2 receptions. This week, with the starting QB up in the air, there are much better options at TE.