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For most fantasy leagues week 13 is critical to either making or getting tossed out of the playoffs. Eric Cunningham is back to give you his thoughts on who are the better plays or who the weaker for this critical week.
We bring you Start or Sit for week 13.
QUARTERBACK
Start ‘Em
Kurt Warner, ARZ
Derek Anderson, CLE
In what figures to be a shootout in the desert, both Warner and Anderson figure to top the fantasy QB charts at the end of the week. Neither defense has had an easy time stopping opposing offenses, nor will either be given a break. Each will be facing a high-powered counterpart in the midst of a playoff push. Both teams need the win more than ever, and both will be relying on the arms of their QB to get it done.
Warner’s Cardinals lost in an overtime heartbreaker to the 49ers last week, but Warner totaled 484 yards and 2 TDs. Anderson also had 2 TDs, but only had 253 yards. This week, each should push for 300 yards with a pair of scores. Warner is currently the hotter of the two, but both QBs are capable of throwing for insane numbers ay given week.
Jay Cutler, DEN
Slowly but surely, Cutler has been turning his play around in Denver, and against Oakland this week, it’s a trend we can expect to continue. Oakland looks like it has a strong defense against QBs this season, but a closer look shows that they haven’t played a statistically sound QB since week 3. They have managed to play a string of Trent Green, Philip Rivers, Damon Huard, Vince Young, Sage Rosenfels, Brian Griese, Tavaris, Jackson, and Brodie Croyle. Who drew up that schedule!?! The last time Cutler had a crack at the defense he was 23-33 with 269 yards and a TD.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Don’t read too much into the debacle on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh is still a reliable offense and Roethlisberger is at the helm. Earlier this season against Cincinnati he threw for 230 yards and a pair of TDs. That will likely be the basement numbers you could expect this week. Big Ben will have normal footing this week and should get deep threat Santonio Holmes back from an ankle injury.
Deep Start ‘Em
A.J. Feeley, PHI
Wow. No one saw these numbers coming, let alone against the New England Patriots. 345 yards? 3 TDs? Was that A.J. Feeley or Peyton Manning? Nevertheless, you have to feel confident using Feeley this week against Seattle. He really only made one mistake when it counted. Most of his throws were on target with plenty of zip. He’s not recommended for shallow leagues because, frankly, we don’t know exactly what Feeley will bring us on a weekly basis. In his last 4 starts (which is spread over the past two seasons) he has had 2 300 yard passing games with 3 TDs apiece. It certainly makes it worth the risk in deep leagues.
Matt Schaub, HOU
He came back from injury in week 11 and has compiled 549 yards and 4 TDs since. With Andre Johnson back in the fold things have been made a little easier, but Schaub has certainly been a good buy for Houston. This week, they have a big divisional game against a Tennessee team that seems to be in a bit of a free fall after getting thrashed by Cincinnati. If Schaub to Johnson can be as successful a combination as Palmer to Johnson was last week, well, Schaub owners have nothing to worry about. I don’t think it will be quite that easy, but Schaub should be solid enough to start in 12+ team leagues.
Sit ‘Em
Rex Grossman, CHI
Same story… he’s not that good. His yardage may be up, but the turnovers are still there. Last week he had an INT and two fumbles. There is no reason to be starting Grossman, and you have to think the Bears are saying the same thing. They’ll be in the front of the line for every free agent QB come spring time.
Vince Young, TEN
I still have a hard time with Vince Young. His yardage is up, but he is throwing far too many interceptions. He has thrown 7 in the last three games as opposed to only 2 TDs. He may be labeled a “winner,” but he’s a big time fantasy bust.
RUNNING BACK
Start ‘Em
Adrian Peterson & Chester Taylor, MIN
This is an extremely important situation to keep watching throughout the week. Not only are they going to be playing Detroit, a team that has given up one of the highest point totals to RBs, but they may be getting Adrian Peterson back just in time. The reports are that an MRI taken on Tuesday showed “excellent healing” giving doctors enough information to allow Peterson to take the practice field. For you Chester Taylor owners, I’d have a back up ready to go, but you’ll want to stay on top of this story and await the official verdict. Worse case scenario for both owners is splitting carries, but in that scenario Taylor is still a useful play. Detroit’s failure to stop RBs hasn’t come in the running game; it’s come in the receiving game. Taylor has averaged 2.3 receptions and 33 yards over the past 4 weeks. Expect those numbers to increase even if he’s splitting time.
Justin Fargas, OAK
Since being named the starter in Oakland, Fargas has averaged 22.5 carries and 96.0 yards per game while scoring 2 TDs. Not too shabby, especially since he’s also chipped in 12 receptions for 85 yards for you PPR leaguers. At this point, Fargas is pretty much the only offensive fantasy player worth owning in Oakland, including Ronald Curry. Denver’s run stoppers have actually turned the corner in the past few weeks and gotten the job done allowing only one RB to crack 70 yards rushing in the past four weeks (Kevin Jones, 71 yards, week 9); but, you can expect Oakland to do everything they can to get Fargas involved as often as possible. He’ll push for 100 yards with a score.
Edgerrin James, ARZ
James is averaging 20.2 carries per game and he’s only fallen short of 17 carries twice. Why is this important? Other than the fact that it shows that he’s a workhorse back in a pass first system; it projects a 100 yard game for James this week. Every RB that has carried the ball at least 17 times against the Browns has rushed for 100 yards and one RB didn’t even need that many (Willis McGahee rushed for 104 yards on 14 carries in week 4). James hasn’t hit the century mark since week 2, but this is his chance to shine. Don’t buck the trend, Edge. Expect just over 100 yards and a score, and, just for kicks, he’ll do it on 18 carries.
Deep Start ‘Em
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
Ok, so, if you have Jones-Drew in a deep league, you’re pretty much forced to play him, but if you were considering an alternative due to Fred Taylor’s re-emergence into the 2nd tier of fantasy RBs you should remember one thing: 4 TDs in 3 career games against Indianapolis. That’s a Jones-Drew fact. He always comes to play against Indy, and now he’ll have David Garrard for a full game. Even though he is splitting carries with Taylor, MJD should have a solid fantasy performance with high-level potential.
Anthony Thomas, BUF
After rushing the ball for 46 yards and adding 45 yards and a score through the air on 8 receptions, Thomas looks as if he could be a respectable fantasy option in the short term. There is no consideration being given to Thomas for an increased role when Lynch comes back, just to be clear, but in his absence he looks to be respectable (especially in PPR leagues) if they use him in a similar fashion against Washington this week. RBs have averaged 4.6 receptions against Washington over the past 5 weeks.
DeShaun Foster, CAR
Throw out last week’s horrendous performance (-5 yards and 2 fumbles) and look at how consistently mediocre he has been all season. Prior to that game, he had rushed for at least 59 yards in 7 of his last 8 games while picking up 2 TDs. He’s likely never going to go out of his way to win you a game, but he’ll always give you a fighting chance. This week, he gets San Francisco at home. Expect him to push for 70 yards.
Sit ‘Em
LenDale White, TEN
Houston’s defense has actually allowed some fantasy-friendly performances by RBs lately, but White won’t be joining the party. White was benched after a personal foul in the second quarter in favor of Chris Brown last Sunday and finished the game with 27 yards on 8 carries. White has gone from 3 straight 100 yard rushing games to 3 straight games combining for less than 100 yards (81 to be exact). The match up itself should be worth a start, but White has been so disappointing lately it warrants a second thought. At the very best expect a time share with Brown rendering both useless.
Julius Jones & Marion Barber, DAL
Green Bay’s defense is good. Real good. However, they haven’t been the best against the run. For an offensive juggernaut like Dallas, it looks like a decent matchup, but the Packers defense will be running on all cylinders for the NFC Championship preview Thursday night. While Barber and Jones should produce, it’s likely that they will fall short of expectations. The Packers have only allowed a single 100-yard performance from a RB (Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, week 4) If you have better options, or high upside options in easier match ups, don’t be afraid to use them.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start ‘Em
Wes Welker, NE
If we know nothing else, we know that the NFL is a copycat league. So when the Eagles were able to keep it close, it’d be ignorant to believe that Baltimore wasn’t watching that game film all week long. The Ravens are going to try and take Randy Moss out of the game again, which means Welker’s value could be skyrocketing. Most teams will be happy to let Welker roam free if they can keep the deep threat of Moss in check, and last week, that meant 13 receptions and 149 yards. While Moss’ value may take a hit in the coming weeks, you can expect Welker’s to continue to skyrocket.
Calvin Johnson, DET
With TDs in two consecutive games, Johnson is back on the fantasy radar. Detroit, even with Jon Kitna’s inconsistent play, is a passing paradise and Johnson is the brightest recipient. It’s hard to remember that this kid is just a rookie when we see the flashes of greatness he displays on the field. One day he’ll be a star, but what we really care about is this Sunday. In a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, he should be just fine. Expect Kitna to throw a few picks, especially after what the Vikings did to Eli Manning last week, but Johnson should get his too.
Joey Galloway, TB
With 3 TDs in the past 4 games, Galloway has done pretty well for himself in fantasy circles. This week, he gets to run wild against the New Orleans Saints, who currently have allowed he second most TDs to WRs on the season (15). Don’t forget, in week 2, Galloway scored twice on his way to racking up a season high 135 yards. Galloway is a must start in all formats as a score and 80+ yards are easy expectations.
Deep Start ‘Em
Joe Jurevicius, CLE
So Jurevicius isn’t the sexy name, but he’s definitely a solid contributor for Cleveland and fantasy teams alike. Jurevicius is the 3rd option at best in Cleveland, but his big frame and sure hands have made him a favorite target of Derek Anderson. In PPR leagues, he’s money in the bank catching 4 or 5 passes in each of the past 5 weeks. Unfortunately, he’s an unlikely redzone target despite the obvious mismatch that his size gives him. However, in deep leagues where 4 receptions and 50 yards are helpful you won’t be disappointed. He’ll probably best both of those numbers against Arizona.
Sidney Rice, MIN
Another rookie makes the list this week, and while Rice is the lesser name he has the better matchup. Detroit’s pass defense has allowed some big games, and Rice’s involvement in the Minnesota passing attack has gotten bigger by the week. He’s been targeted 4.8 times per game in the past four weeks up from 3.7 from the first 6 games of the season. 62% of his receiving yards were totaled in the past four weeks. Keep him on your radar. This week could be a coming out party.
Reggie Williams, JAX
He may not be the best value for PPR leagues, but for TD-heavy scoring systems he’s a gem. After his TD last week, Williams has now scored 6 TDs on the season (and unlike Chad Johnson’s 6 TDs, Williams did it in 6 different games). He has TDs in the past two weeks, but only on 3 receptions. Despite the low reception total, his yardage is surprisingly high (121 yards on those 3 receptions). He’s a big play receiver, but he isn’t hauling in bomb passes, he’s turning 20 yard receptions into Devin Hester-esque runs to the end zone. If your league scores for YAC he’s a great value.
Lee Evans, BUF
The shooting of Washington safety Sean Taylor was a horrifying incident, and it will be nearly impossible for a Washington unit to regroup in under one week. But the games must go on, and Buffalo get the unwanted honor of having to be the bad guy to try and go in and pick up a win against a mourning team. Nonetheless, Evans should be the one to have a big game. He’ll be a deep threat against what will likely be a notably slower defensive unit. He’s been slumping recently, but he’s definitely worth a play in deep leagues this week.
Our thoughts and prayers at The Whiz go out to the family and friends that Sean left behind.
Sit ‘Em
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
He’s just fallen right off the fantasy map since Kellen Clemens took over. With only 3 receptions over the past two weeks, his value in PPR leagues is dropping by the second. Even with Laveraneus Coles out last week the extra receptions went to Justin McCareins and Brad Smith (don’t worry, neither of them have any more value than Cotchery). Even against Miami, I’d hold off.
Chris Chambers, SD
A TD last week was a nice sign of improvement, but it came with a 5 reception 22 yard game. For the few of you hanging on to the topes of Chambers becoming an elite receiver now that he’s in San Diego, that ship is sailing quickly. Philip Rivers is getting booed at home, and Chambers impact on the WR crew has been minimal at best (one game above 60 receiving yards and 2 TDs in 5 games). He’s a lightning in a bottle player.
TIGHT END
Start ‘Em
Heath Miller, PIT
Nothing can be taken away from last week’s game in the swamp that is Heinz Field. Just two weeks ago he had 5 receptions, 71 yards, and a score against Cleveland. This week against Cincinnati, similar results are certainly possible.
Ben Watson, NE
Just like Welker, with Moss being double covered and garnering all of the attention the other receivers in New England will get a lot of attention. Watson doesn’t get as much as the others, but he has Tom Brady’s trust in the red zone. He has 6 TDs in 9 games.
Deep Start ‘Em
Tony Scheffler, DEN
His highlight catch between the legs was all over Sportscenter making him a household name from week 12, but fantasy owners have known Scheffler’s name for quite sometime. Finally he’s starting to break the mold in Denver and consistently put together respectable numbers. He’s averaging 4.3 receptions and nearly 40 yards over his past 7 games along with 3 scores.
L.J. Smith, PHI
After such a slow start due to injury, Smith has made a respectable, and very quiet, return to the fantasy realm. Smith has topped 40 yards for three straight weeks while making at least 3 receptions in each. He’s a big part of that Philadelphia receiving game when healthy, but it looks as if both Donovan McNabb and A.J. Feeley have faith in him over the middle.
Chris Baker, NYJ
He may very well be the best fantasy player on the New York Jets at this time. Baker has 11 receptions and 112 yards and a TD over his past 3 games. It’s nearly half of his season production in a very short time period. He’s a great sleeper candidate down the stretch, but is best used in PPR leagues.
Sit ‘Em
Marcedes Lewis, JAX
Last week, Lewis had a season best performance with 5 receptions for 57 yards; however, in his last game against Indianapolis he only had 13 yards on a pair of receptions. Don’t expect the same output as last week, Jacksonville will try to run as often as possible.
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