It's not called "Out On A Limb" for nothing!

Willis McGahee, recently acquired by the Baltimore Ravens to take the reins from Jamal Lewis (now with the Cleveland Browns), has been touted by most as a premier fantasy option this year. The argument, of course, is that it was the Buffalo Bills' fault that he was not living up to his own characterization of himself as the best running back in the entire league. (Yes, folks, that includes LaDainian Tomlinson)

There is no doubt that Buffalo had its problems, particularly at the quarterback position and along the offensive line. It makes sense, and it's easy to make excuses for McGahee's performance - or lack thereof - in Buffalo. Clearly, these things will not hold him back in Baltimore, right?

Right?

Well, not so fast. 

In his three active seasons with the Buffalo Bills, Willis McGahee was the unquestioned feature back. He carried the ball 868 times for 3,365 yards - an average of 3.9. He scored just 24 total touchdowns, 13 of which came in his first season on the field. These hardly-impressive numbers are due entirely to the lack of a decent offensive line, if you read into what most McGahee supporters, including himself, have to say about it.

I readily acknowledge that the quality of OL play has a dramatic effect on a runner's numbers - but there are a few points that need to be made here.

First is that great runners find a way to be successful regardless the line they are running behind. Decent, and maybe even good runners struggle the most behind mediocre lines, but the great ones always seem to find a way to break through, score touchdowns, and/or catch passes. McGahee has been decidedly pedestrian in every aspect of his game. 

Second is a note of his specific game performance. 5 of his total 14 career games with 100 or more yards came against the New York Jets. 7 of those 14 games were in his first year on the field. In fact, he had just two games over 100 yards in 2006 - both against the Jets. Well, he won't get to play against the Jets twice a year anymore (although he does get to play against them in week 2 this season). 

Third is a return to the offensive line. The Baltimore Ravens' offensive line was once dominant. They had excellent players at every position, including tight end and fullback. The result was Jamal Lewis' 2000-yard season. But that's not the case anymore. The Ravens have struggled a bit recently, and this offseason have experienced a veritable bloodletting of blockers. Fullback Ovie Mughelli, guard Edwin Mulitalo, and tackle Tony Pashos have all left. 12-year veteran Pro Bowl tackle Jonathan Ogden seriously considered retirement this year, and is not quite the player he was a few years ago. 

Additionally, quarterback Steve McNair isn't getting any younger or more mobile, and recently got into some trouble with the law that could, conceivably, result in some league disciplinary action.

So the situation in Baltimore with respect to the offensive line and quarterback play may not be appreciably improved over what McGahee has been running behind in Buffalo the last few years.

Finally, we have McGahee's ego that likes to write checks he can't cash. He has a tendency to pick up nagging injuries, and is not immune to the major ones, such as the catastrophic knee injury that cost him his rookie season. In fact, despite appearing in 16 games in two of his three active seasons, he has never started all 16. Buyer beware.

Is McGahee a bust? Will he be a major disappointment to fantasy owners? No, I don't think so... He is at least worth drafting in the second round, and MAYBE even late in the first. But I think he will let down a lot of people who expect him to suddenly explode into a fantasy beast that will carry them to their league's championship. McGahee is a decent back, but I'm out here on my limb declaring that he will post remarkably similar numbers to what he did in Buffalo.

My projection? 300 carries, 1185 yards, and 8 touchdowns - if he plays every game. A decent year, and maybe a slight improvement over last year, but no sudden breakout into fantasy studdom.