Skin Chooser
| Out On A Limb: Vol 1 |
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| Written by Adam Lasik | |
| Monday, 02 April 2007 | |
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There are sites out there with no guts. They never want to just hang a few bold predictions out there for people to take or leave. Those who know me know that I just can't be a vanilla no-risk pansy like that. So if you don't like risky/bold predictions about what's going to happen - possibly including injuries - then the Out On A Limb series is not going to be your cup of tea. The point, of course, will be to highlight a player or two with each entry that will help you win your league. Even the guy with LaDainian Tomlinson needed help last year, so finding those value picks is a critical part of the game. So without further ado... installment one of the Out On A Limb Series. The Cutler/Walker ConnectionWhen Jay Cutler was drafted, I saw his arm strength, decision-making, accuracy, and especially his quick release and immediately believed that he was destined for success. The Broncos apparently thought so, too, because they didn't wait very long to supplant incumbent Jake Plummer with the rookie. Cutler made his pro debut after eleven games. while the team was still 7-4 and in the playoff hunt. That was a surprise to most, but Plummer had thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and the Broncos felt pretty strongly that Plummer was not the going to get them a championship, so it was best to get the rookie some playing time. They were rewarded with some very solid performances from Cutler. In five games, Cutler attempted 137 passes, completing 81 (59.1%). Perhaps more impressive, he threw 9 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions which factored into a very respectable 88.5 passer rating. (Plummer was running a 68.8) The one downside to Cutler's performance in his first five games was that he took too many sacks. Plummer took only 18 sacks in the first 11 games, but Cutler took 13 in the remaining 5. This is the rookie colors showing, resulting in slightly slower decision-making. He displayed good field vision and knowledge of where his receivers and the defense are supposed to be, so it can be expected that he will not take so many sacks in 2007. A full offseason to work in the system and with his receivers can only help Cutler, and with a release as fast as his, he should be able to increase his effectiveness steadily over the course of the year. Consider also that he has some excellent receiving options in Javon Walker, Brandon Marshall, Rod Smith, Tony Scheffler, and Daniel Graham. So where is the limb in all of this? I'm predicting Cutler as a top-5 fantasy QB. A huge part of the reason why has to do with part 2 of this Out On A Limb segment: Javon Walker. There really isn't another way to put it. Javon Walker is a stud. He is big (6'3") and fast. Perhaps more importantly, he can go up and get a catchable ball, and almost always brings it down. Walker does not allow anything in his area to hit the ground - or an opposing defensive back - without a serious fight; one that he typically wins. Javon Walker had a career-high 6 drops last year, but in the previous three seasons with the Green Bay Packers he dropped a combined four balls. Considering the fact that Walker was returning from a torn ACL, had joined a new team, and was going after Jake Plummer passes most of the year, he performed remarkably well. And now, when the season opens, he will be two years removed from his knee injury, and will have had a full offseason to develop his rapport with Cutler. Look for Walker to assert himself as the top dog in the Broncos' receiving corps and march to the top-3 of fantasy receivers this year. As a bonus for you dynasty afficionados - if you can, take a flyer on Brandon Marshall. At 6'4", he is big enough to present a serious red zone target when Walker is double-teamed and he showed some excellent communication with Cutler after spending the first half of the season working with him on the second team. He also received a rousing endorsement from Champ Bailey. So keep an eye on that Cutler/Walker connection. Walker will be taken in the upper-tier of wideouts, most likely around the 7th-to-10th receiver off the board, but Cutler should be available as an excellent value pick. |
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