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Skin Chooser

TheWhiz
Flying High or Riding Pine -Week 4 Print E-mail
Written by Eric Cunningham   
Thursday, 27 September 2007

Here at the Whiz, we expect that you already know to start your studs - even if they have had a slow start to the season. It's the rest of your draft that may need a second opinion from time to time.

Eric Cunningham digs deep this week to help you figure out who will be flying high, and who should be riding the pine on your team. With bye weeks starting to hit and injuries piling up, Eric provides you with a little shove in the right direction.

QUARTERBACKS

Start ‘Em

Philip Rivers, SD (vs. KC)

Lost somewhere between the LaDanian Tomlinson complaining and Marty Schottenheimer laughter was the fact that Rivers had a breakout game (360 yards, 3 TD, and 1 INT) against a formidable Packers defense. I hardly expect that type of output from Rivers on a regular basis, but with Tomlinson being ineffective Rivers may see more opportunities to air it out. The Chiefs’ defense has yet to face a quarterback of Rivers’ ability (Matt Schaub, Rex Grossman, and Kelly Holcomb), but did well against that competition. Expect Norv Turner to try some new things and let Rivers throw more often. A line of 250 yards and 2 TDs is reasonable.  

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (@ SF)

Over his career, Hasselbeck has played in nine games against San Francisco. He’s combined for 2,167 yards, 17 TDs and 8 INTs. That’s an average of just over 240 yards with 1.9 TDs and 0.9 INTs per game. Hasselbeck is one of the least respected fantasy quarterbacks in the league despite the stability he brings to a lineup week in and week out. He’s extraordinary value after the “top” quarterbacks are drafted and always keeps your team in the game. How do Drew Brees or Marc Bulger owners feel with that 3rd round pick now? Something tells me Hasselbeck owners are happier with the depth at RB or WR. With Shaun Alexander suffering from a broken wrist you can expect Hasselbeck to shoulder a little bit more of the load. Use his per game average against San Francisco as minimum expectations.

Chad Pennington, NYJ (@ BUF)

In leagues that rely heavily on touchdowns, Pennington has been much more valuable than you’d think. In his 2 games, he’s thrown 4 TDs with 0 INTs despite putrid yardage numbers. A quick trip to Buffalo should fix that problem in a hurry. Buffalo has already allowed two 300 yard passers on the season and has given up 6 TDs through the air as opposed to 2 on the ground. With Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery forming quite the WR tandem in New (Jersey) York, Pennington’s numbers will be on the rise starting this week.

Deep Start ‘Em

Tony Romo (@ STL)

Tony Romo is officially on fire. Over the first three games, Romo has thrown for 860 yards, 8 TDs, and only 2 INTs. The Rams, on the other hand, might have proven to be one of the worst defenses in the league ranking 21st in points allowed per game and 28th in rushing yards against. Ironically, that seems to have led them to an extremely good pass defense (3rd in the league in yards against at 146.0). While I fully expect Romo to have a solid game, it might not be as great as it could be. Dallas’ formidable running attack will cut into Romo’s production and keep him outside the elite this week. Don’t get me wrong, Romo is still a starter in most formats, but in shallow leagues better options may exist.

Jon Kitna, DET (vs. CHI)

First the bad… Kitna had three fumbles, lost two, and was picked off once against Philadelphia last week and now gets to head home for one of the best defenses in the league: Chicago. Now the good news is that he’s almost eclipsed 1000 yards passing already, he’s posted a quarterback rating of over 100.0 twice, and has thrown 6 TDs. He’s going to make mistakes, but the good should outweigh them with the sheer volume of passing plays in a Mike Martz offense. Ironically, the last quarterback to start against the ball hawking Chicago defense without giving up an interception was Kitna in week 16 last season (including playoffs). Keep expectations tempered, as you should when starting any player against Chicago, but he’s worth starting in 12+ team leagues. In 10 team leagues there are probably better options.

Joey Harrington, ATL (HOU)

One week after saying “he shouldn’t be on anyone’s roster anymore,” I’m starting to change my tune. That’s what happens when a quarterback rises to the occasion despite dodging questions surrounding his new competition (Byron Leftwich) and a critical coach (doesn’t get rid of the ball fast enough) on his back. Harrington has shown marked improvement week to week and now gets to play Houston. While Houston’s defense is no slouch this year, it’s a welcome sight to an Atlanta team who has faced Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Carolina to start the season. Don’t be afraid to plug him in as a bye week replacement. 

Jeff Garcia, TB (@ CAR)

Carolina’s defense has allowed an increasing number of passing yards each week, and, has yet to force an interception. This is good news for Garcia who has yet to throw an INT himself and has thrown 13 career TD passes against the Bucs (second most against any individual team). Make no mistake, Tampa Bay’s first option will be to run the ball, but Garcia could surprise this week. In a deep league, he’s certainly worth a bye week filler.

Sit ‘Em

Marc Bulger, STL (@ DAL)

First he loses two offensive linemen, and then he loses Steven Jackson for the short term. A lot of his success will rely upon how good a job Brian Leonard does filling in for Jackson (more on that later). Dallas’ defense has picked off 7 passes in the last two weeks alone, and if Bulger is forced to go to the air consistently, you can expect a similar result. It’s time to find a reliable back up. Brian Griese, CHI (@ DET) Finally, Lovie Smith has pulled the plug on Rex Grossman. Is that the last we’ll ever see of him, I doubt it, but Bears’ fans should be rejoicing nationwide that Griese is the new starter. Teams with a defense as good as Chicago’s don’t need a superstar quarterback. All they need is a game manager, and that’s what Griese will be. Even though he’s playing the Lions, who just gave up a 50 spot to the Eagles, Griese will be a game manager. In his last starting gig (2005 with Tampa Bay), Griese only topped 230 yards once in six games and threw 7 TDs with 7 INTs.

Jay Cutler, DEN (@ IND)

I’m disappointed in Cutler. The yardage has gone down every week since his 304 yard effort in Buffalo, but more importantly, he has only thrown 1 TD in each game. Those expecting Cutler to push the 27-30 TD range are going to be disappointed. Against a much improved Indianapolis defense Cutler will struggle. There are better options.

Jason Campbell WAS, Drew Brees NOS, David Garrard JAC,  Vince Young TEN

– All are on Bye in week 4.

RUNNING BACKS

Start ‘Em

LaMont Jordan, OAK (@ MIA)

Jordan has become a must start every week, especially against Miami. I continue to have contained enthusiasm, but now have to bump my expectations to 1200 yards and 9 TDs for the season. With the combination of injuries and ineffective play from those around him, Jordan looks like one of the top backs in the NFL. In the preseason, I liked him as a 3rd RB which is where he was mostly being drafted. If you were drafting today he’d easily be a first rounder. This week against Miami there is no reason to expect anything other than a performance approaching 100 yards and a score.

Marion Barber III & Julius Jones, DAL (vs. STL)

As mentioned earlier, the reason Tony Romo’s expectations need to be lowered is because the Dallas running game is going to go bananas. Marion Barber will make sure of that. His carries have gone up each game, as have his yards, and he has found pay dirt 6 times already. He’s still going to split carries with Julius Jones which will limit his value to some extent, but make no mistake, Barber is an impact player who will continue to succeed in Dallas. Frank Gore scored twice against St. Louis in week 2, and Earnest Graham did it last week. This week, Barber gets his chance, and will do it with ease.

Jones owners should also get their guy in the lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones end up with more yards, and this will be as good an opportunity as any to break a long run off. Get him in your lineup.

Travis Henry, DEN (@ IND)

After claiming that a 1500-yard season was on the “low end” of his expectations, Henry offered a dud in week 3 with only 35 yards on 11 carries. Expect the opportunities and carries to increase this week against the Colts. Indianapolis has shut down running backs pretty well this year, but they’ve had the likes of LenDale White and Samkon Gado getting the majority of carries against them over the past two weeks. Henry’s success is essential to the Broncos hanging with the Colts this week. Expect Shanahan to get him on track early and often.

Deep Start ‘Em

Laurence Maroney, NE (@ CIN)

One of the quietly disappointing first round running backs has been Maroney. He’s healthy, he’s getting plenty of carries, but he’s not in the red zone game plan for the explosive Patriots. Sammy Morris continues to shoulder the goal line load, but Heath Evans will be there if he can’t get it done. If Maroney finds the end zone, it will be from 30+ yards out. He needs to be treated as a #2 fantasy running back going forward. One quick side note in PPR leagues, Maroney has zero receptions for the season. That’s less than Seattle’s second string FB, Leonard Weaver who has no fantasy value in case you were wondering. This week against Cincinnati he’s worth starting, but he’ll be better utilized in deep leagues.

Kenny Watson, CIN (vs. NE)

New England has done a fantastic job of stopping the run so far, but I fully expect the Bengals to use an all out aerial attack to try and win the game. That being said, if you’re in a 12+ team league Watson may be a viable option. He’s really the only back who will get the 15 carries that Marvin Lewis will call. He has a sneaky speed burst and he’s an interesting option as a backfield receiver. While everyone else is running to grab Brian Leonard, I’d make a claim for Watson.

Sit ‘Em

Edgerrin James, ARZ (vs. PIT)

The Steelers’ defense is dominating against the run this year shutting down Frank Gore, Jamal Lewis, and Marshawn Lynch to the tune of a combined 138 yards (46.0 yard average). Oh, and they have yet to give up a single rushing touchdown. It’s pretty much the worst match up a running back can currently have. James YPC was solid last week (5.7), but only managed 10 carries since Arizona had to take to the air to keep up with the Ravens. Expect that YPC to drop like a rock, but the carries to remain low. Arizona will probably have to go to the air early and often.

Brian Leonard, STL (@ DAL)

Do I spend a waiver priority on Leonard this week? If I am a Steven Jackson owner I do, but not just because he’s getting the carries. There are better options, and I want to see him prove something before I go crazy. Leonard is a pounding back with three-fifths of an offensive line. Losing Orlando Pace was bad, but now Mark Setterstrom is out for the year as well. For a veteran back like Jackson this is bad news; but, for a rookie back who will be making his first start in the NFL against a Dallas defense who hasn’t allowed a 90 yard rusher yet, well, its mission impossible.

Kevin Jones & Tatum Bell, DET (vs. CHI)

I still tend to sit players against the Chicago defense, so to see Jones on this list shouldn’t be too shocking. However, I wanted to make sure that owners keep expectations low and continue to wait it out. Let’s not forget, it wasn’t all that long ago that Jones almost found his way onto the PUP list and would’ve been out until week 6. Yes, he scored a touchdown last week, but more importantly he only had 3 carries. I would be shocked to see him crack 10 this week. I have him earmarked for a week 7 start against Tampa Bay. He has Washington next week followed by his BYE in week 6. After that he should be ready to carry the load.

Tatum Bell on the other hand has just proven to be another mediocre running back that looked much better in the Denver system. Part of his downfall may be the fact that the first, second, and third options in the Detroit system are throwing the ball and he just isn’t getting the carries. Either way, he’s virtually unplayable.

Reggie Bush NOS, Fred Taylor JAC, Maurice Jones-Drew JAC, Chris Brown, TEN, LenDale White TEN, Clinton Portis WAS, Ladell Betts WAS – All are on bye in week 4.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start ‘Em

Bernard Berrian, CHI (@ DET)

I’m not overly excited about his value now that Griese is the starting quarterback and the big arm of Grossman is gone. However, I like the idea that he’ll be on the field more since Griese can’t possibly turn the ball over as much. Berrian has a great match up this week against Detroit and Griese should attempt to take full advantage. So far, Detroit has made Ronald Curry (10 receptions, 133 yards, 1 TD) and Kevin Curtis (11 receptions, 233 yards, 3 TDs) look like fantasy super stars. Berrian, with a better resume than both, should be considered the top breakout candidate.

Chris Chambers, MIA (vs. OAK)

Teams have thrown all over Oakland this year. Seven receivers have had 4 reception games, five have brought in at least 70 yards, and five have scored touchdowns. Chambers has been targeted 39 times already, or, more than anyone else in the league that’s not a Cincinnati Bengals starting WR (Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are #1 and #2 on the list with 46 and 40 targets respectively). Not to mention, Trent Green’s yardage numbers have increased every week. The stars are aligning for a big weekend for Chambers.

Derrick Mason, BAL (@ CLE)

While we are on the target front, Derrick Mason’s 37 targets make him the most surprising of the top 5. Notably, his red zone targets have doubled each week (1-2-4). While I don’t expect him to see 8 red zone targets this week, it’s nice to see him getting the opportunities to make plays in Baltimore. Against Cleveland this week, you can count on a solid outing. 80 yards and a TD should easily be in the works. The Browns have given up 8 touchdowns through the air already.

Deep Start ‘Em

Marvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne, IND (vs. DEN)

OK. I know you’re all going to start them anyway, and you should, but in shallow leagues where you may only start 1 or 2 WRs there are better options. The fact is that Champ Bailey and Dre Bly are shutting down everyone. Only one WR (Josh Reed) has four catches against them all season, and no one has eclipsed the 50 yard receiving mark yet. Keeping Harrison and Wayne under 4 catches apiece is nearly impossible, but if there was going to be a game in which they were mismatched, this would be it.

Roddy White, ATL (vs. HOU)

If Joey Harrington is on the rise, someone has to be catching the ball. Currently, it’s Roddy White. White brought down a stunning 127 yards last week topped off with a 69 yard TD in the second quarter. Is he an every week starter? Not a chance. However, he’s not a bad depth guy at this point. In those especially deep leagues, where he’s probably already owned, he’s worth a flex spot.

Kevin Curtis, PHI (@ NYG)

It’s tough to judge him by the numbers since last week’s explosion will skew everything out of whack, but Curtis is better than the credit he is getting. I wasn’t sold on him for draft day a few weeks ago but it’s becoming apparent that he is the ONLY target in Philadelphia for Donovan McNabb outside of Brian Westbrook. Someone has to catch passes, and Reggie Brown isn’t that guy. In a game where McNabb threw for 381 yards, Brown was able to total 2 receptions and 23 yards. He combined with Jason Avant and Hank Baskett for 4 targets to Curtis’ 14. I think the sell high talk needs to end. Curtis may not be a star, but he’s going to get plenty of chances in Philadelphia. Expecting 1000 yards and 6 or 7 TDs is reasonable, but he’ll have more value in PPR leagues.

Sit ‘Em

Anquan Boldin, ARZ (vs. PIT)

Pittsburgh’s pass defense isn’t as good as the run defense, but it’s still elite. Only San Francisco’s Tyler Jacobs has caught a touchdown against them, and there hasn’t been a single 70 yard receiver against them. Boldin, coming off a high week against Baltimore (181 yards and 2 TDs), will be in a lot of lineups this week, but only because we like to think that one great outing will automatically mean another. Don’t bench someone else with a better match up just because Boldin played great last week. This week, his match up makes him a much worse play then usual.

Reggie Brown, PHI (@ NYG)

It’s a shame too because this is a really good match up for WRs, but Reggie Brown has been almost completely ignored on the football field. Last year, he had 6 TDs in the first 7 games. Now, he doesn’t even have 6 receptions through 3 weeks. Brown is droppable in shallow leagues and barely worth depth in deeper leagues. Don’t trust him unless you have no other options.

Lee Evans, BUF (vs. NYJ)

I’m still a believer in Evans for the season, and typically, I would suggest him as a starter. However, with Losman injured I’m not nearly as optimistic. I want to see what Trent Edwards can do first. Expect the Bills to give a healthy workload to Marshawn Lynch to take the pressure off the rookie. Hang on to Evans, but hold off this week.

Marques Colston NOS, Santana Moss WAS, Antwaan Randle El WAS, Brandon Jones TEN, Reggie Williams JAC – All are on Bye in week 4.

TIGHT ENDS

Start ‘Em

Owen Daniels, HOU (@ ATL)

Last week he had 7 receptions and over 50 yards. Daniels is quickly proving to be a reliable TE option in the wake of the Andre Johnson injury. With Ahman Green now out as well, Daniels could be looked at even more often. He’s a must play.

Jason Witten, DAL (vs. STL)

We’re quickly learning that Witten, and not Patrick Crayton or Sam Hurd, is the biggest beneficiary of the Terry Glenn injury. He’s almost been targeted as much as Terrell Owens (29-21) and has been the most targeted receiver inside the red zone. He’s a must start every week, especially, against St. Louis.

Ben Watson, NE (@ CIN)

The Patriots were able to let Daniel Graham walk to Denver because they knew they had something special in Watson. Watson has become one of Tom Brady’s favorite red zone targets. It’s deceptive because he only has three red zone targets on the season, but Watson has been money catching every one of them. Watson’s big on running into the flat or to the back of the end zone. He could approach double digit TDs if the Patriots offense keeps this up.

Deep Start ‘Em

Greg Olsen, CHI (@ DET)

The only TE drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft, Olsen has yet to break out because of injuries. Griese, who will more than likely run a more controlled offense for Chicago, will probably look Olsen’s way a little more often than Grossman did. He’s a good bye week filler.

Jeff King, CAR (vs. TB)

King has been extremely impressive recently, so finding him on the waiver wire can only last so much longer with bye weeks kicking in. He’s in the top 10 in TE receiving yards and has a TD. I’m not sure what else you can ask for.

Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, & Jerame Tuman, PIT (@ ARI) 

Clearly, Pittsburgh is going to throw to their TEs near the goal line. The problem is that we never know which one. Miller is clearly the every down TE, but Spaeth and Tuman are great diversionary targets in the red zone. Of Roethlisberger’s 6 TD passes, 5 have been to TEs. Miller is worth starting every week, but Spaeth and Tuman are worth starting as bye week fillers because you just can’t tell who is going to be the TE du jour. 

Sit ‘Em

Tony Gonzalez, KC (@ SD)

Kansas City’s offense has been anemic this season. Against the San Diego defense, it’s not going to get any better. The TE pool is so deep this season; there is no reason to avoid finding a quality back up.

Eric Johnson NOS, Chris Cooley WAS, Marcedes Lewis JAC, Bo Scaife TEN – All are on Bye in week 4.

 
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