Skin Chooser
| Flying High or Riding Pine -Week 4 |
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| Written by Eric Cunningham | |
| Thursday, 27 September 2007 | |
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Here at the Whiz, we expect that you already know to start your studs - even if they have had a slow start to the season. It's the rest of your draft that may need a second opinion from time to time. Eric Cunningham digs deep this week to help you figure out who will be flying high, and who should be riding the pine on your team. With bye weeks starting to hit and injuries piling up, Eric provides you with a little shove in the right direction.
QUARTERBACKS Over his career, Hasselbeck has played in nine games against San Francisco. He’s combined for 2,167 yards, 17 TDs and 8 INTs. That’s an average of just over 240 yards with 1.9 TDs and 0.9 INTs per game. Hasselbeck is one of the least respected fantasy quarterbacks in the league despite the stability he brings to a lineup week in and week out. He’s extraordinary value after the “top” quarterbacks are drafted and always keeps your team in the game. How do Drew Brees or Marc Bulger owners feel with that 3rd round pick now? Something tells me Hasselbeck owners are happier with the depth at RB or WR. With Shaun Alexander suffering from a broken wrist you can expect Hasselbeck to shoulder a little bit more of the load. Use his per game average against San Francisco as minimum expectations. Chad Pennington, NYJ (@ BUF)
In leagues that rely heavily on touchdowns, Pennington has been much more valuable than you’d think. In his 2 games, he’s thrown 4 TDs with 0 INTs despite putrid yardage numbers. A quick trip to Buffalo should fix that problem in a hurry. Buffalo has already allowed two 300 yard passers on the season and has given up 6 TDs through the air as opposed to 2 on the ground. With Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery forming quite the WR tandem in New (Jersey) York, Pennington’s numbers will be on the rise starting this week.
Tony Romo (@ STL)
Jon Kitna, DET (vs. CHI)
Joey Harrington, ATL (HOU)
Jeff Garcia, TB (@ CAR)
Sit ‘Em
First he loses two offensive linemen, and then he loses Steven Jackson for the short term. A lot of his success will rely upon how good a job Brian Leonard does filling in for Jackson (more on that later). Dallas’ defense has picked off 7 passes in the last two weeks alone, and if Bulger is forced to go to the air consistently, you can expect a similar result. It’s time to find a reliable back up. Brian Griese, CHI (@ DET) Finally, Lovie Smith has pulled the plug on Rex Grossman. Is that the last we’ll ever see of him, I doubt it, but Bears’ fans should be rejoicing nationwide that Griese is the new starter. Teams with a defense as good as Chicago’s don’t need a superstar quarterback. All they need is a game manager, and that’s what Griese will be. Even though he’s playing the Lions, who just gave up a 50 spot to the Eagles, Griese will be a game manager. In his last starting gig (2005 with Tampa Bay), Griese only topped 230 yards once in six games and threw 7 TDs with 7 INTs.
Jay Cutler, DEN (@ IND)
I’m disappointed in Cutler. The yardage has gone down every week since his 304 yard effort in Buffalo, but more importantly, he has only thrown 1 TD in each game. Those expecting Cutler to push the 27-30 TD range are going to be disappointed. Against a much improved Indianapolis defense Cutler will struggle. There are better options. Jason Campbell WAS, Drew Brees NOS, David Garrard JAC, Vince Young TEN
RUNNING BACKS
LaMont Jordan, OAK (@ MIA)
Marion Barber III & Julius Jones, DAL (vs. STL)
Jones owners should also get their guy in the lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones end up with more yards, and this will be as good an opportunity as any to break a long run off. Get him in your lineup.
After claiming that a 1500-yard season was on the “low end” of his expectations, Henry offered a dud in week 3 with only 35 yards on 11 carries. Expect the opportunities and carries to increase this week against the Colts. Indianapolis has shut down running backs pretty well this year, but they’ve had the likes of LenDale White and Samkon Gado getting the majority of carries against them over the past two weeks. Henry’s success is essential to the Broncos hanging with the Colts this week. Expect Shanahan to get him on track early and often. Deep Start ‘Em
Kenny Watson, CIN (vs. NE) New England has done a fantastic job of stopping the run so far, but I fully expect the Bengals to use an all out aerial attack to try and win the game. That being said, if you’re in a 12+ team league Watson may be a viable option. He’s really the only back who will get the 15 carries that Marvin Lewis will call. He has a sneaky speed burst and he’s an interesting option as a backfield receiver. While everyone else is running to grab Brian Leonard, I’d make a claim for Watson. Sit ‘Em Edgerrin James, ARZ (vs. PIT)The Steelers’ defense is dominating against the run this year shutting down Frank Gore, Jamal Lewis, and Marshawn Lynch to the tune of a combined 138 yards (46.0 yard average). Oh, and they have yet to give up a single rushing touchdown. It’s pretty much the worst match up a running back can currently have. James YPC was solid last week (5.7), but only managed 10 carries since Arizona had to take to the air to keep up with the Ravens. Expect that YPC to drop like a rock, but the carries to remain low. Arizona will probably have to go to the air early and often.
Brian Leonard, STL (@ DAL)
Kevin Jones & Tatum Bell, DET (vs. CHI) I still tend to sit players against the Chicago defense, so to see Jones on this list shouldn’t be too shocking. However, I wanted to make sure that owners keep expectations low and continue to wait it out. Let’s not forget, it wasn’t all that long ago that Jones almost found his way onto the PUP list and would’ve been out until week 6. Yes, he scored a touchdown last week, but more importantly he only had 3 carries. I would be shocked to see him crack 10 this week. I have him earmarked for a week 7 start against Tampa Bay. He has Washington next week followed by his BYE in week 6. After that he should be ready to carry the load. Tatum Bell on the other hand has just proven to be another mediocre running back that looked much better in the Denver system. Part of his downfall may be the fact that the first, second, and third options in the Detroit system are throwing the ball and he just isn’t getting the carries. Either way, he’s virtually unplayable.Reggie Bush NOS, Fred Taylor JAC, Maurice Jones-Drew JAC, Chris Brown, TEN, LenDale White TEN, Clinton Portis WAS, Ladell Betts WAS – All are on bye in week 4. WIDE RECEIVERSStart ‘Em Bernard Berrian, CHI (@ DET)I’m not overly excited about his value now that Griese is the starting quarterback and the big arm of Grossman is gone. However, I like the idea that he’ll be on the field more since Griese can’t possibly turn the ball over as much. Berrian has a great match up this week against Detroit and Griese should attempt to take full advantage. So far, Detroit has made Ronald Curry (10 receptions, 133 yards, 1 TD) and Kevin Curtis (11 receptions, 233 yards, 3 TDs) look like fantasy super stars. Berrian, with a better resume than both, should be considered the top breakout candidate. Chris Chambers, MIA (vs. OAK)Teams have thrown all over Oakland this year. Seven receivers have had 4 reception games, five have brought in at least 70 yards, and five have scored touchdowns. Chambers has been targeted 39 times already, or, more than anyone else in the league that’s not a Cincinnati Bengals starting WR (Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are #1 and #2 on the list with 46 and 40 targets respectively). Not to mention, Trent Green’s yardage numbers have increased every week. The stars are aligning for a big weekend for Chambers. Derrick Mason, BAL (@ CLE)While we are on the target front, Derrick Mason’s 37 targets make him the most surprising of the top 5. Notably, his red zone targets have doubled each week (1-2-4). While I don’t expect him to see 8 red zone targets this week, it’s nice to see him getting the opportunities to make plays in Baltimore. Against Cleveland this week, you can count on a solid outing. 80 yards and a TD should easily be in the works. The Browns have given up 8 touchdowns through the air already. Deep Start ‘EmMarvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne, IND (vs. DEN) OK. I know you’re all going to start them anyway, and you should, but in shallow leagues where you may only start 1 or 2 WRs there are better options. The fact is that Champ Bailey and Dre Bly are shutting down everyone. Only one WR (Josh Reed) has four catches against them all season, and no one has eclipsed the 50 yard receiving mark yet. Keeping Harrison and Wayne under 4 catches apiece is nearly impossible, but if there was going to be a game in which they were mismatched, this would be it.Roddy White, ATL (vs. HOU) If Joey Harrington is on the rise, someone has to be catching the ball. Currently, it’s Roddy White. White brought down a stunning 127 yards last week topped off with a 69 yard TD in the second quarter. Is he an every week starter? Not a chance. However, he’s not a bad depth guy at this point. In those especially deep leagues, where he’s probably already owned, he’s worth a flex spot.Kevin Curtis, PHI (@ NYG) It’s tough to judge him by the numbers since last week’s explosion will skew everything out of whack, but Curtis is better than the credit he is getting. I wasn’t sold on him for draft day a few weeks ago but it’s becoming apparent that he is the ONLY target in Philadelphia for Donovan McNabb outside of Brian Westbrook. Someone has to catch passes, and Reggie Brown isn’t that guy. In a game where McNabb threw for 381 yards, Brown was able to total 2 receptions and 23 yards. He combined with Jason Avant and Hank Baskett for 4 targets to Curtis’ 14. I think the sell high talk needs to end. Curtis may not be a star, but he’s going to get plenty of chances in Philadelphia. Expecting 1000 yards and 6 or 7 TDs is reasonable, but he’ll have more value in PPR leagues. Sit ‘EmAnquan Boldin, ARZ (vs. PIT) Pittsburgh’s pass defense isn’t as good as the run defense, but it’s still elite. Only San Francisco’s Tyler Jacobs has caught a touchdown against them, and there hasn’t been a single 70 yard receiver against them. Boldin, coming off a high week against Baltimore (181 yards and 2 TDs), will be in a lot of lineups this week, but only because we like to think that one great outing will automatically mean another. Don’t bench someone else with a better match up just because Boldin played great last week. This week, his match up makes him a much worse play then usual.Reggie Brown, PHI (@ NYG) It’s a shame too because this is a really good match up for WRs, but Reggie Brown has been almost completely ignored on the football field. Last year, he had 6 TDs in the first 7 games. Now, he doesn’t even have 6 receptions through 3 weeks. Brown is droppable in shallow leagues and barely worth depth in deeper leagues. Don’t trust him unless you have no other options.Lee Evans, BUF (vs. NYJ) I’m still a believer in Evans for the season, and typically, I would suggest him as a starter. However, with Losman injured I’m not nearly as optimistic. I want to see what Trent Edwards can do first. Expect the Bills to give a healthy workload to Marshawn Lynch to take the pressure off the rookie. Hang on to Evans, but hold off this week.Marques Colston NOS, Santana Moss WAS, Antwaan Randle El WAS, Brandon Jones TEN, Reggie Williams JAC – All are on Bye in week 4. TIGHT ENDSStart ‘Em Owen Daniels, HOU (@ ATL)Last week he had 7 receptions and over 50 yards. Daniels is quickly proving to be a reliable TE option in the wake of the Andre Johnson injury. With Ahman Green now out as well, Daniels could be looked at even more often. He’s a must play. Jason Witten, DAL (vs. STL)We’re quickly learning that Witten, and not Patrick Crayton or Sam Hurd, is the biggest beneficiary of the Terry Glenn injury. He’s almost been targeted as much as Terrell Owens (29-21) and has been the most targeted receiver inside the red zone. He’s a must start every week, especially, against St. Louis. Ben Watson, NE (@ CIN)The Patriots were able to let Daniel Graham walk to Denver because they knew they had something special in Watson. Watson has become one of Tom Brady’s favorite red zone targets. It’s deceptive because he only has three red zone targets on the season, but Watson has been money catching every one of them. Watson’s big on running into the flat or to the back of the end zone. He could approach double digit TDs if the Patriots offense keeps this up. Deep Start ‘EmGreg Olsen, CHI (@ DET) The only TE drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft, Olsen has yet to break out because of injuries. Griese, who will more than likely run a more controlled offense for Chicago, will probably look Olsen’s way a little more often than Grossman did. He’s a good bye week filler.Jeff King, CAR (vs. TB) King has been extremely impressive recently, so finding him on the waiver wire can only last so much longer with bye weeks kicking in. He’s in the top 10 in TE receiving yards and has a TD. I’m not sure what else you can ask for.Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, & Jerame Tuman, PIT (@ ARI) Clearly, Pittsburgh is going to throw to their TEs near the goal line. The problem is that we never know which one. Miller is clearly the every down TE, but Spaeth and Tuman are great diversionary targets in the red zone. Of Roethlisberger’s 6 TD passes, 5 have been to TEs. Miller is worth starting every week, but Spaeth and Tuman are worth starting as bye week fillers because you just can’t tell who is going to be the TE du jour.Sit ‘Em Tony Gonzalez, KC (@ SD)
Kansas City’s offense has been anemic this season. Against the San Diego defense, it’s not going to get any better. The TE pool is so deep this season; there is no reason to avoid finding a quality back up. Eric Johnson NOS, Chris Cooley WAS, Marcedes Lewis JAC, Bo Scaife TEN |
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