Another off-season, another crazy Brett Favre story, or stories…  Getting to be the same old story. Another story that is consistent each year is which players will make or break your fantasy team. In this article I will put some players out there that I think you should stay far away from. These players, for whatever reasons, are still highly thought of by some, but I am not one of them. Read on and I will tell you which players you need to avoid in 2008.

QB Vince Young TEN – Young has been one of the most hyped QBs since entering the league in 2006. I am not on his bandwagon, as I just don’t think he has the arm or the receivers to be worthy of an overall ADP of 127, or as the 17th QB drafted. In his two years as a starter he has averaged a decent 56.9% of his passes, but he has only thrown 21 TDs while throwing 30 INTs over that same period. Some will point to his rushing touchdowns (10) as a big reason to draft him, but even those declined from 7 in year 1 to 3 in year 2. Even worse, the team now has two RBs that will take the ball out of his hands more often and a receiving corps that is not considered very good among NFL pundits and I don’t think that Young is a good pick at that ADP.

Players with a lower ADP that I would take before Young are Jason Campbell, Jake Delhomme, Jon Kitna and JaMarcus Russell.

(2) Forum Discussion

RB Laurence Maroney NEP – Maroney seems to be getting more positive attention this off-season after a fairly strong finish to 2007, but was it enough? First he has yet to complete a full 16 game season, having missed 5 games in his young two-year career. Now take a look at the games in weeks 1-13, otherwise known as the fantasy league season, in those games in 2007 he averaged 56.7 yards per game and had only 1 100 yard performance.  Then add in the fact that he is always pulled on third down because he can’t catch the ball and he just doesn’t do enough to warrant being drafted at his current ADP of 31 overall, or as the 17th RB taken.

Players with a lower ADP that I would take before Maroney include Brandon Jacobs, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James and Earnest Graham.

WR Roy Williams DET – Williams had his lowest TD total of his career in 2007, with only 5 TDs. He also had his lowest average yards per catch for a season to date.
Combine that with only 64 receptions for 838 yards and you have to start to worry about his production moving forward, especially when you consider he did this under the tutelage of OC Mike Martz, who is known for his high flying offenses. Martz is now gone, and along with it goes the high flying offense. The team drafted Kevin Smith, who is a strong, powerful runner who the team hopes will allow them to be a run-first team again. Add to this the fact that 2nd-year player Calvin Johnson should only improve and further hinder Williams from being a top receiver in 2008. With a current ADP of 45 overall, or as the 16th WR taken, I think you can find safer picks with a lower ADP.

Players with a lower ADP that I would target before Williams include Santonio Holmes, Greg Jennings, Hines Ward and Jerricho Cotchery.

WR Santana Moss WAS – Moss has had two good seasons, 2003 with The Jets, and 2005, his first year at Washington. In his other 5 seasons he has been totally mediocre. This includes 2007, when he had his lowest TD total (3) since 2001. For a #1 WR he is not worth the risk. In the first 13 games of 2007 (fantasy regular season) he only had 1 100-yard game, but in 5 of the 10 games he played over that span he had less than 5 receptions and had 6 games with under 50 yards receiving.  He is on a team that loves to run first and has a Quarterback who is still learning the position. Because of these things I recommend that you let another owner take the chance on him. With a current overall ADP of 78, or as the 28th WR taken, there are better options.

Players with a lower ADP that I would draft before Moss include Donald Driver, Laveranues Coles, Bobby Engram and Joey Galloway.

TE Todd Heap BAL – No one will contend the fact that when Heap plays he is among the best in the league, the problem is that he has always been an injury risk and is coming off a 2007 season where he missed 10 games. Still his current overall ADP is 91, and he is the 7th TE taken in drafts. This is too high for so many reasons. Chief among them being they still don’t know who will be the QB in Baltimore. Currently the leader of the 3-QB race is Troy Smith, but it is hard to build a rapport when you don’t get enough time to work together. It is hard to risk Heap as your #1 TE, especially since he has already missed some time in camp with a calf injury.

Players with a lower ADP that I would draft before Heap include Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Owen Daniels and Tony Scheffler.

 All ADP values used were from MFL.com.