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TheWhiz
Rookie Recon - Wide Receivers Print E-mail
Written by Kyle Zimbelman   
Monday, 19 March 2007

A solid receiving corps is the backbone of a successful dynasty team.

In order for a team to stay near the top over a long period of time, it must maintain its WRs.  RBs win championships, we all know that. The problem is that, in order to get the top prospects at running back, you need to finish poorly a couple of seasons to get the early draft picks. This conflicts with the goal of being a top team year after year. As a dynasty champion, and as a dynasty perennial playoff team, an owner should spend more time researching the WRs than any other position. It is likely that the WRs will be the best talent available when it is time to pick in the late 1st round of a dynasty rookie draft.

That said, there are always a couple of teams that draft early in the 1st round of the dynasty rookie draft that will take the "can’t miss" WR prospect. This year, that prospect is Calvin Johnson. Yes, I like the rest of the fantasy world am a big time Johnson fan. But before I throw myself into writing the massive amount of Johnson hype that I plan to, let me throw out some names. David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Mike Williams, Charlie Rogers, Peter Warrick… I think you get the idea. All of those players were can’t miss prospects coming out of college, with the same type of hype that Johnson is receiving. My point is, don’t risk an early 1st round pick on a "can’t miss" WR, because they often do miss. Hopefully you are not drafting near the top of the 1st round too often.  When you are unfortunate enough to be picking early, you are best served to use that chance to build your RBs. 

So let’s dig in and take a look at this year’s rookie receiving class. There are not a lot of guys that will be able to help you right away. We will primarily be looking for the players that will be the studs of the league in the next three years (Hello Mr. Lasik).


Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech (6-5, 239LBS)

               

There is not a WR in this draft that has more potential than Calvin Johnson. I venture to say that there might not by any player at any position with as much potential as Mr. Calvin Johnson. The guy can catch anything, which may not be good for his health but may turn him into an awesome fantasy player. He runs routes like a 10-year NFL vet. Johnson cannot be stopped off the line; press coverage may end up being a joke against him. At 6-5, he is huge and will get higher than DBs for the jump ball. The guy is strong enough to present a challenge for any man to bring down by himself. He has speed to get downfield and can excel in the open. The guy has to potential to become one of the very best at his position within the next three years. Each and every dynasty franchise should take a long look at this guy, regardless of where they are drafting and regardless of their needs.

 

Because Calvin Johnson is “The Guy.”

 

But alas, he is a WR. Johnson may be worth an early 1st  round shot, but keep in mind that if you do pull the trigger too early that you may end up with spoiled eggs. It is a high-risk/high-reward pick to take a WR in the top 3, but if he falls to the bottom half of the first round, take him and run.

 

Sidney Rice, S. Carolina (6-3 ½ 200LBS)

               

There are receivers that will be drafted higher than Sidney Rice. There are rookies that are more polished, and there are some with more physical skills. I am here to sift through the plethora of numbers and evaluations to find you the rookie receiver that has the strong chance to move on and have a solid NFL career. Let’s face it, WRs bust more often than any other position in fantasy football. There are a couple of guys that will probably go in the top-20 of this year’s NFL draft that will disappoint; I will get to them later. Rice will go in the late first round of the NFL draft and may have a mediocre rookie season, but three years from now he can end up being a real plus to a dynasty roster.

 

Only one wideout at the combine could jump higher than Sidney Rice, and it was “The Guy,” Calvin Johnson. Connect that ability with his 6-3 height, and it should tell you that he is going to get most of the balls tossed in his direction. He is a solid athlete and was known in college for making spectacular catches. His hands are golden; he won’t drop a lot of passes. His speed will allow him to get down field and create some havoc for a defensive secondary.

Rice is unpolished, though, and may take some time to develop. He will have to learn how to get off the line, and will have to learn how to finish routes crisply. Rice is a rookie that you can draft this year and expect a few decent games out of. But he is also a player that has a real chance to turn into an anchor of a dynasty fantasy roster a few years down the road.

 

Aundrae Allison, E. Carolina (6-0 ¼ 198LBS)

 

There are two things that will give a wideout a chance to excel in the NFL. One is speed and the other is hands. Neither skill can be taught, and Aundrae Allison possesses them both. While he may never push for the top tier of receivers in the NFL, he certainly has the skills that will allow him to solidify himself in the second tier. This is the type of guy that can really surprise a team that takes a chance on him. Look for Allison in the late-2nd round of your dynasty rookie draft and enjoy some early returns, and some long term consistency.

 

Ted Ginn Jr. Ohio St. (5-11 ¼ 178LBS)

 

Troy Williamson has amazing speed. His burst off the line is second to none. He will make great plays after the catch, and will produce big numbers down the field. His only downfalls are that he runs undisciplined routes and has trouble making catches.

 

Wait! I am supposed to be talking about Ted Ginn Jr. This is 2007 after all. But I am going to venture to say that Ted Ginn Jr. is the Troy Williamson of this year’s WR rookie draft. He has some pretty impressive physical skills, but the fact remains he can’t catch the ball and he can’t run routes. He may have been able to get by with that at the college level, but it is show time, and stone hands and butter routes will not play in the NFL. Let another owner feel the disappointment after taking him in the 1st round of your dynasty rookie draft. But hey, if everyone else in your league is reading this and he does happen to fall to the late 2nd, take a shot on him there.

 

It should be noted that Ted Ginn Jr. projects to be a very good return man. If your league counts return points, bump him up a notch or two on your draft board.

 

Dwayne Bowe, LSU (6-2 221 LBS)

 

The comparisons between Dwayne Bowe and Ted Ginn Jr are significant. Both can get off the line and make some noise downfield. Both also have a nasty tendency to drop balls. I am not a Bowe fan, as I am not a fan of any WR that drops a lot of balls. While Bowe is not the game-breaker that Ginn is, he does have nice red zone height and a strong desire to go up and get the jump ball. Bowe and Ginn rank very similarly to me. Ginn has a little more upside in my book with his speed and his explosiveness.  However, Bowe may provide a few more touchdowns during his career and may even see some TDs during his rookie season. Put Bowe right behind Ted Ginn Jr. and target him in the late 2nd or the early 3rd round of your rookie dynasty draft.

 

Jason Hill, Washington St. (6-0 ½ 195)

 

A WR that can go up and get the jump ball is one worth watching. Throw in an above-average 40 yard dash time and polished route running ability, and Jason Hill has the potential to be one of the better possession receivers in the NFL. I know it is hard to get excited about possession receivers, but they often can be a nice WR3 on your fantasy squad and can put up some nice TD numbers. I would target Hill in the 3rd round of my dynasty draft, and hope that three years down the road his is my WR3.

 

Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio St (6-0 195LBS)

 

Overshadowed last season by a mass of talent around him, Anthony Gonzalez may slip in both the NFL draft and in your dynasty rookie draft. Gonzalez has great hands, and runs tight routes.  He is tough and elusive, enough so that he will make some nice gains after catching the ball. With a few years to develop, it is a strong possibility that Gonzalez will turn into a decent fantasy producer.

 

Craig Davis, LSU (6-1 ½ 202LBS)

 

Here we have a solid prospect who was stuck behind another potential stud by the name of Dwayne Bowe. At times, Davis even outperformed the much more popular Bowe. He has the explosiveness to separate from NFL CBs and has the hands to make the NFL catch. Given a chance, Davis can shine. Call him my first sleeper pick at WR and target him in the 4th round of your dynasty rookie draft.

 

Jacoby Jones, Lane (6-2 ½ 210 pounds)

 

Speed. Believe it or not, we are talking about speed when we are talking about Jacoby Jones. He had a poor showing at the combine, which will cause him to slip in both the NFL draft and your dynasty rookie draft. But Jones possesses an excellent burst of speed, he is strong, and will get a off the line quickly. Jones will be able to turn the short pass into a long gain. But he will need time to develop his weak route running skills, and will need to put on some muscle. Give him three years, and you may have a nice surprise in Jacoby Jones.

 

Dwayne Jarrett, USC (6-4 219LBS)

 

Think of Terrell Owens or Randy Moss without the super human skills and you may have Dwayne Jarrett. Not that Jarrett lacks talent; his hands are above average and he can take a hit. But he does not have the speed or the explosiveness to ever be as big-time of a WR that he thinks he is. Jarrett can end up having some success in the NFL, but it is just as likely that he ends up being the type of player that no one wants.  His attitude in the locker room will not be balanced by his talent on the field.

 

Robert Meachem, Tennessee (6-2 214lbs)

 

Regardless of the talent level, no receiver will be able to put up fantasy numbers if he is on the bench. Robert Meachem is not tough enough to play in the NFL. He will be drafted early because of his size, speed and hands. Unfortunately, unless he can stop hearing footsteps and actually catch a pass across the middle of the field, he likely will not see much of it in an NFL regular season game.

 

Laurent Robinson, Illinois St. (6-2 199LBS)

 

There are things than can be taught in the NFL; footwork, route running, beating the jam off the line. Those types of things Laurent Robinson will have to learn, mostly because he is coming out of a smaller school. But things that cannot be taught, such as speed and flat-out play making ability, Robinson already possesses. He is an excellent sleeper in your rookie dynasty draft; but don’t let him fall too far, as he may not be available. Target him in the late 4th or early 5th, and I don’t think you will be disappointed a few years down the road.

 

Paul Williams, Fresno St. (6-1 205LBS)

 

Any WR that has a vertical jump that ranks in the top five of this year’s rookie class deserves some sleeper consideration.  Catching the jump ball will be Paul Williams’ strength in the NFL. He also does have speed the will stretch the field. His inconsistency and lack of focus trouble many NFL scouts, and he will likely slip in the NFL draft. These should also trouble you as a dynasty team owner, convincing you to wait to take him. But in the 6th or 7th round of a dynasty rookie draft, Williams has the makings of a nice gamble.

 
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