Skin Chooser
| Rookie Recon - Tight Ends |
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| Written by Kyle Zimbelman | |
| Wednesday, 14 March 2007 | |
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It's time to start taking a look at the 2007 rookie class. Naturally, it is difficult to project how each player will perform in the short term until we find out where they land, but when focusing on dynasty value it is a different story. Many rookies will take some time to develop, and by the time they are ready to contribute they may be in a completely different situation than they were on draft day. When it comes to preparing for a dynasty draft, it is best to look at raw talent and not worry about how much playing time they will see in the first couple of seasons. If the talent is there, they will shine fantasy wise - often sooner rather than later. NFL teams will make sure the best talent gets a chance to show what they can do. Let's start with the tight end position. The TE is an awkward position in fantasy football. A top tier player will win you some games in fantasy football, but it is not a position that you should rely on to carry your team. If you are looking to draft a TE early, you should make sure that your core positions (QB, RB, WR, and LB) are solid and intact for the future. If you have that luxury, it is likely that you are set to draft in the back half of your dynasty rookie draft. With most dynasty owners of that mindset, the quality TE prospect will usually fall to the late 1st or late 2nd round in a dynasty rookie draft. While the 2007 rookie TE class does not compare to the 2006 class there still are a couple of guys that are worth early 2nd round dynasty consideration. >>Read More>> Greg Olson, Miami (6-6, 252 lbs)With a 4.55 40 time, Greg Olson has the ability to make some noise down the field. He is strong enough to get off the line, but also has the agility to make tacklers miss. His skills will make LB coverage irrelevant and force NFL safeties to cover him. His only downfall is his inability to pass block. Good defensive linemen will throw him to the ground easily. But we are focused on his fantasy skills, and no other TE in the 2007 class can compare. With the right team, Olson can make an impact immediately. He clearly has the long-term potential to put up solid fantasy numbers, steadily ranking in the second tier of TEs, often pushing towards the first tier. NFL teams will be looking for him in the mid first round. Fantasy owners who have a need at tight end need should be looking in the 10-15 overall pick range.
Zach Miller, Arizona State (6-5, 259 lbs)Many mock drafts have Zach Miller going ahead of Olson. Both players have a great deal of talent, and I do agree with the mocks that Miller may indeed be taken ahead of Olson in the NFL draft. We must realize though, again, that this is fantasy football. What may be best for an NFL team may not always be what is best for a fantasy squad. Miller is stronger than Olson and has longer arms. While those attributes make Miller a better blocker than Olson, Greg Olson's fantasy numbers will be far superior to those Miller's over the duration of both players' careers. Olson is quicker off the line, has a better 40 time, and Olson's shuttle times were also quicker at the combine than Miller's.
While I have Miller at number two on my tight end dynasty draft board, he still should not be overlooked. Miller has great hands, and can gain yards after the catch. While LBs may be able to keep up with him, he will be able to punish them when the ball is in his hands. The Arizona State product still deserves 2nd round dynasty rookie draft consideration. Given his blocking ability and his route running ability, Miller may be a safer pick than Olson. A little hint here though; safe picks don't when leagues, and don't build dynasties. Take Greg Olson and run if he is on the board. If not, feel confident with a Zack Miller pick in the 12-20 range of your dynasty rookie draft.
Ben Patrick, Delaware (6-3, 252 lbs)The sleeper of this year's TE class is Ben Patrick. At the combine, his numbers were close to or superior to Zach Miller's. Patrick has a great deal of toughness and excellent ability to achieve separation. He is a big target with above-average hands. While he is certainly not a prospect in the class of Zach Miller or Greg Olson, Patrick does have potential. His intensity has been questioned by scouts, but most feel that after a couple of years in the league, he will turn into a steady producer. Patrick is best targeted in the middle rounds by a dynasty team looking to rebuild, hoping to have a solid producer at the TE position down the road.
And thus we have the two big prospects and a sleeper. After those three, the talent level drops some, leaving primarily deep sleepers. Never reach up for a deep sleeper at tight end. Let them fall to you and you may have some nice surprises. Not Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates type of surprises, but maybe you will find a Ben Watson or LJ Smith in the mix.
Gijon Robinson, Missouri Western (6-1, 255 lbs)Gijon Robinson is on the small side for a tight end. He will never be a good blocker, and thus may only see limited playing time throughout his career. Robinson does have good hands, and can get early separation as well as the ability to run after the catch. He displayed good strength at the combine, with only Greg Olsen benching 225 Lbs more times. Robinson may take some time to develop, but eventually could turn into a solid fantasy TE.
Luke Smith-Anderson, Idaho (6-5, 264 lbs)Luke Smith-Anderson is the type of player on which I love to gamble. He is injury prone, so NFL teams may let him slide in the draft because of durability questions. He has played six years at the college level, yet he has only been active for less than half of the games. But he is tough, and he is competitive. He will run after the catch, he will run good routes, and when he turns to face his quarterback he uses his size to create a good target. This is the type of guy that, if you are scratching your head come the 7th round of your dynasty draft, you should strongly consider.
Lastly, there are a couple of guys that may be over-hyped come draft day. Both will probably be taken sooner in the NFL Draft than two guys mentioned above, but they should be avoided in dynasty rookie drafts.
Matt Spaeth, Minnesota (6-7, 257 lbs)Matt Spaeth is big and strong. He can dominate on the line of scrimmage, and will be a fine asset to an NFL team. But the fact of the matter is that he is a blocker. He lacks the physical skills to put up any significant fantasy numbers.
Martrez Milner, Georgia (6-4, 252 lbs)Martrez Milner has the potential to be the most overrated player in the NFL rookie draft. On the surface he appears to have the physical skills that some NFL teams will reach for, and some "experts" will hype. But truth be told, he is a blocker that lacks heart. He fails to show aggressiveness. He lacks speed, and he lacks hands. While NFL teams may take a chance on him and your leaguemates may buy the hype, you have to stop and ask yourself; if a TE isn't good enough to start in his senior season of college, what are the chances that he will make an impact at TE on your fantasy squad? |
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