OK:  In order for sleepers to become the elite new-kids-in-town, other guys have to become ex-studs, has-beens, and used-to-be’s.  It’s the only way it can work.  Being aware of this is more than just understanding how sleepers can rise, it’s also a key part of dynasty fantasy roster management.  There is a great advantage in being willing to walk away from guys who have been solid producers before they collapse.  It’s the time-honored “Buy Low, Sell High” theory, and it’s a big part of being able to maintain a roster that can win year after year.

Brett Favre (GBP):  Future Hall-of-Famer Brett Favre has been “the guy” in Packer-land since 1992.  He threw for over 3,800 yards again in 2006, and added 18 TDs to his impressive career totals.  Favre has started all 16 games for the Pack for each of the last 14 years, and has given a long string of Green Bay receivers ample opportunity to perform the beloved Lambeau Leap.  But Favre has also clearly started showing his age.  Each of the last several off-seasons has been spent in “will Brett retire?” speculation, and he has been declining in completion percentage steadily since 2003 (from 65.4% in ’03 down to only 56.0% last year).  He has also been steadily declining in TD passes (from 32 in ’03 to 18 last year), while continuing to throw around 20 interceptions each year (18 in ’06 down from a career-high 29 INTs in ’05).  Whether this steady slide continues in 2007, or if the injury bug finally takes a bite out of his ever-aging frame, Favre is a likely candidate to drop out of the top twenty-five QBs.

If nothing else, consider that Kitna started all 16 games last year in spite of being sacked a league-high 63 times. The odds are stacked against him being able to withstand that level of punishment for another year without missing some time to injury.  I see Kitna as a great option for a later-round QB-2, but too risky for an early QB-1, which is where you probably have to reach to get him in many drafts.  He’s also in the perfect position for a “sell high” trade if you can find an owner in your league who’s expecting another stellar year out of journeyman Jon.

Grossman is a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide-Your-Face-Horrible, and heading into this year, Rex finds himself on a short leash.  There won’t be too many more opportunities to be putrid on a team that has hopes to return to the Super Bowl.  Coach Lovie Smith may simply get tired of his erratic down-turns and pull him in favor of Brian Griese.  If nothing else, the fans will start screaming for his head.  Either way, he won’t be likely to make it into the top twenty-five again.

So why on Earth would I include Peyton in a list of candidates poised to fall?  Maybe I got confused and accidentally wrote “Peyton” when I really meant to say Eli Manning?  Well, no, but to clarify, I don’t necessarily expect Peyton to completely crumble, but I’m still including him here because of the following three reasons: 

Secondly, the Colts have had a very concerning change in their offensive line – no longer is Tarik Glenn anchoring the key left-side tackle slot.  Second-round rookie Tony Ugoh out of Arkansas seems to have the inside track on taking over, but it will be hard for any rookie to step in and replace the perennial Pro-Bowler Glenn.

Running Back

Chester Taylor (MIN):  An easy one to call.  Taylor went from being the backup for Jamal Lewis in Baltimore in ’05 to being the featured back in Minnesota last year, where he rushed for 1,216 yards and 6 TDs on 303 carries.  But with the drafting of Adrian Peterson, Taylor will either share the backfield with the talented new rookie, or – more likely – be relegated back to holding a #2 role as he did in Baltimore.  In either scenario, it is almost certain that Taylor will not make it back into the top 25 RBs in 2007.

Warrick Dunn (ATL):  Dunn made the lower tier of the top twenty-five fantasy RBs last year, but he is clearly a candidate to fall out completely in 2007.  His 1,140 rushing yards on 286 attempts gave him just a 4.0 yards-per-attempt rushing average, his lowest since 2002.  In addition, his 170 receptions was also a career low.  Having back surgery during the off-season is also another reason for concern.  But the biggest issue is the change at QB.  Even though Michael Vick was not a huge passing threat, defensive game-plans still focused primarily on stopping him.  With Harrington behind center, defenses will stack the box and dare Joey to beat them with the pass, since they know he can’t do it consistently.  With defenses focused more on the RBs, it is unlikely that Atlanta will have as dominating a run offense as in the past, hurting Warrick Dunn’s productivity.  Add in Dunn’s advanced age of 32 and an up-and-coming Jerious Norwood, who looked good in his rookie season and you get a prime candidate for decline.

Mike Furrey (DET):  Unlike QB and RB, there is no Wide Receiver who was in the top twenty-five last year who has retired or will obviously not be on the field in 2007.  But of the WRs who did perform at an elite fantasy level last year, Furrey is the one who is most likely not to repeat in ’07.  Furrey went from a previous career total of 21 receptions and no TDs during his previous three years in St. Louis to 98 receptions for 1,086 yards and 6 TDs in his first year in Detroit.  Last year he was one of those sleepers who seemed to come out of nowhere.  But with the Lions drafting Calvin Johnson , Furrey will be demoted to the third-WR slot role, and he will simply not see enough passes to be able to reproduce the stats he had in ’06.

2002: 1,329 yards, 12 TDs
2003: 1,163 yards, 10 TDs
2004: 1,004 yards, 4 TDs
2005: 975 yards,    11 TDs
2006: 975 yards,     6 TDs 

Terry Glenn (DAL):  Long-lived Terry Glenn managed to break 1,000 yards receiving again in 2006, pulling in 70 passes for 1,047 yards and 6 TDs.  This marked the fourth time in his 11-year career that he broke that millennium milestone.  Now at 33, Glenn is facing lingering effects of off-season knee surgery, and will not play at all during the preseason.  At times he is a solid receiving option opposite Terrell Owens, but he can also completely vanish even when healthy, and he’s only managed to play all 16 games three times in his career.  The recurring pattern in the number of games Glenn has played over the last eight years (since 1999) is plain to see:

If this three-year pattern holds, then Glenn can be expected to only play about 5 games this year, and his lingering knee issues through the preseason do nothing to alleviate this concern.