This Dynasty Pulse is the first issue of what I hope will become a weekly series, depending on your interest and feedback. With so much of the Whiz’s readership involved in Dynasty leagues, there should be a lot of interest in staying on top of young players who we can target with the hope they will grow into long-term stars. So that’s what this article will be about – focusing on the Dynasty perspective, looking at the long term, and keeping an eye on the development of young, new, and future NFL players to help you make any roster moves that can allow you to optimize the position.

(1) Forum Discussion

This week, I’ll check in on rookie quarterbacks from the 2007 draft now that we are past the midway point of their first season: How are they doing? What can we expect from them going forward? What other tidbits can we find? I’m not just interested in what happened last week or might happen in their next game, I’m also trying to gauge several seasons ahead.

Some other topics I hope to cover in the next weeks:

• Continued 2007 offensive rookie check-in – RBs, WRs, TEs, PK & OL
• 2007 defensive rookie check-in – DLs LBs, and DBs
• 2008 offensive rookie watch
• 2008 defensive rookie watch
• 2009 drafts and beyond -- Early thoughts
• 2006 offensive rookie 2nd year progress
• 2006 defensive rookie 2nd year progress
• 2005 3rd year breakouts and busts

I’ll hopefully continue to rotate around on these topics, focusing on rookies, younger players, and the rookies-to-be through the end of this season, into the off-season, and right up through the 2008 draft.

Of course – this all depends on what you think. You have to let me and the rest of the Whiz staff know by posting your comments and forum feedback. Unfortunately, “No Response” is usually taken as “No Interest” unless we hear otherwise.

As an initial offering of the Dynasty Pulse, let’s check in on the 2007 Rookies Quarterbacks. We’ll go by overall draft order:

JaMarcus Russell (1.01 - OAK): Drafted by the Raiders as the first overall pick in 2007, Russell has yet to play a down -- he’s been listed on Oakland’s Inactive List most weeks. Russell missed both training camp and the preseason during a prolonged contract hold-out, not signing until the regular season started, making it the longest rookie hold-out in NFL history other than Bo Jackson. Russell’s absence was likely a factor in the Raiders signing free-agent Duante Culpepper to go along with new QB Josh McCown, who had been traded from Detroit in late April.  Russell eventually signed a six-year $68 million incentive-laden contract which has around $31 million in guarantees. With it now painfully obvious that the Raiders’ season will have few wins, the “play Russell” drumbeat is starting to get louder throughout Raider-Nation. Both Culpepper and McCown have alternated between being hurt and playing badly and neither is a long-term solution. Andrew Walter is basically out of the picture. So now eyes are becoming more and more focused on Russell and making note of the words, “The Chosen One,” appropriately tattooed on his shoulder. Yet, with the way the O-line and the offense have been playing, it’s probably better that the Raiders haven’t rushed Russell onto the field. Coach Lane Kiffin knows the value of not throwing a kid to the wolves too soon, "I think about playing JaMarcus all the time. That doesn’t mean it's what we're going to do,” said Kiffin. “This isn't about this year when you look at everything. You've got to make sure JaMarcus is ready to play. This is our franchise. This is the guy you gave a lot of money to, the first pick overall. You better make sure you have the right stuff around him... This is a guy who's not used to losing." Still, I wouldn’t be too surprised if we have a JaMarcus sighting at some point before too long – if not this week, then probably by the December 2nd home game against Denver. But like Coach Kiffin says, without a lot of offensive talent around him, it will likely take a few years for Russell to become a top fantasy QB. I think he does have the ability to eventually become one, and in the long run I think Russell will ultimately reward the wait. Definitely hold on to him.

Brady Quinn (1.22 - CLE): Seen by many observers as the most NFL-ready QB in the 2007 draft, Quinn watched and waited until Cleveland finally traded up to get him as their second first-round pick. It worked out well for the Browns. They passed on Quinn at pick 1.03 and instead took Tackle Joe Thomas, who has stepped in and immediately helped solidify the O-line. Thomas is big a part of breakout QB Derek Anderson’s success. Plus, the Browns still got the long-term QB they wanted in Quinn. Yet for now, Quinn is still waiting, which was not expected. The Browns probably thought they’d have to turn to him sooner rather than later, but with the breakout year Anderson is having, Quinn will be given a much more gradual development path. However, things change fast in the NFL, and if nothing else, the economics of the game will eventually come into play – Cleveland will have a multi-millionaire first-rounder sitting on the bench with a five-year contract, and Anderson’s play will ultimately make him a free-agent who can also command a high salary. The Browns won’t be able to afford both. So at some point, Quinn will get the opportunity to start. He showed flashes of talent in his few pre-season appearances, so I expect him to eventually excel in Cleveland. But for now, fantasy owners will wait along with him.

Kevin Kolb (2.04 - PHI): At the time, the 2nd round selection of Kolb by Eagles seemed too early to many observers, raising both eyebrows and questions about the health and immediate future of Donovan McNabb. Yet in the end, McNabb started the season and remains entrenched as the Eagles QB for now, in spite of a tough season to date. There has been some speculation about the Eagles’ plans for McNabb in 2008, and discussion about seeing Kolb at QB, but when asked if he’s considering playing Kolb, Coach Andy Reid has said, "I think everybody needs to pick up their game. I don't think that's where we're at right now."  So, like the QBs taken ahead of him in the draft, Kolb is still waiting, spending most weeks on the Inactive List. Kolb looked good at times during pre-season, but his only regular-season passing plays so far came during week three’s blowout of the Lions, and ended with two sacks and a lost fumble. Kolb hasn’t even been credited with a passing attempt yet (sacks don’t count). Kolb remains another rookie who we’re going to have to wait a while to see enough before making any solid career predictions. I expect him to probably be at least #2 on the depth charts by next year, and starting once McNabb either moves on or gets injured. So while Kolb’s a bit of an unknown commodity, he’s worth holding onto in your dynasty league.

John Beck (2.08 - MIA): Brigham Young QB Beck was considered by some to lack ideal size and athleticism, and be too old (25) to be worth a high pick. But Miami thought otherwise and took him as the fourth QB in the 2007 draft. In training camp and preseason, Beck showed intelligence, desire, and put up decent numbers (100.9 passer rating) until the final preseason game when he threw 2 interceptions and got sacked four times. In the regular season, he has been inactive most weeks while Cleo Lemon served as the primary backup behind Trent Green. But now Green is on IR, Lemon has been less-than-stellar as a starting QB, and Miami is still winless. So as expected, we’re hearing more and more rumblings about Beck playing sooner rather than later. Beck and Lemon are now splitting practice reps, and while Lemon is still the starter, if he falters against the Bills then the Beck era in Miami could begin as early as this week. Beck is obviously worth holding onto until we get a chance to see how he responds to real-game situations Odds are we will see very soon.

Drew Stanton (2.11 - DET): The Lions stayed local when they took Michigan State’s Stanton as the third QB taken in the 2nd round. Stanton had a good career at Michigan State, but also had an injured knee as a freshman, and only made it to the end of July before injuring the same knee in Lions practice. He had surgery and was placed on Injured Reserve even before the preseason began. The Lions indicated that the injury wasn’t catastrophic, but they felt it better to use an IR slot for him since he was unlikely to play in 2007, even if healthy. Losing a year of interaction and reps is sure to slow Stanton’s development, but if your dynasty roster has IR slots, he’s still worth stashing there and waiting to see how he responds next off-season.

Trent Edwards (3.29 - BUF): So far, Edwards is the only 2007 rookie QB who has seen the field for any real time this year. A strong preseason showing earned him the main backup role to J.P. Losman to start the season. Edwards then had to step into the game in week 3 after Losman injured his knee, and Edwards then started each week afterwards. He completed 80 passes out of 121 attempts (66.1%) for 790 yards, 1 TD, and 5 Interceptions, giving him a passer rating of only 69.9. But before week eight’s game against the Jets, it still seemed likely that the Losman era was over in Buffalo – Head coach Dick Jauron had more or less named Edwards the “long-term” starter. Then Edwards hurt his wrist in the game, and Losman came in and led the Bills to a win. Jauron’s response about the QB situation when asked about his “long-term” comments towards Edwards? “Well, how long is long-term? That’s what I’m saying. It’s not longer than one week because you don’t know what’s going to happen in a week’s time.” So in coach-speak, “long-term” = “one week”? Just what dynasty owners love to hear. Now here we are heading into week 10 and Edwards still sits with a hurt wrist and Losman is again starting and trying to do all he can to solidify that role. The Buffalo QB situation is in full flux -- who knows what the flux will happen? My own “long-term” thoughts are that Losman will eventually stumble again, and that Edwards will return to being the starter. But this in-and-out, “what have you done for me lately,” environment can really mess with a young QB’s mind. Edwards is obviously worth keeping in a reserve slot on your bench for now, although some worry over a revived Losman is totally understandable.

Isaiah Stanback (4.04 - DAL): Stanback played primarily QB at the University of Washington, passing for around 3,800 total yards, but there was also times he lined up at Wide Receiver. He was drafted by the Cowboys as a Wide Receiver, and we will cover him more when we review the WRs. For now, the main point is that even though Stanback played QB in college, he is considered a WR in virtually all fantasy leagues – and he’s been Inactive most weeks for the Cowboys and has yet to catch a pass. He finally saw the field in week 9 against the Eagles, but as a kick-returner, and he injured his shoulder and is now out again. So if you’re considering him a WR, you’re going to have to wait a while longer to see any results, and if by some fluke you’re still considering him a QB, then you definitely need to make other plans.

Jeff Rowe (5.14 - CIN): Rowe was a fifth-round selection by the Cincinnati Bengals. He played QB at the University of Nevada, and has ended up as third on the depth chart behind Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Like many rookie QBs, he has been inactive most weeks and has yet to play a regular-season down. As a fantasy prospect, Rowe offers little value at this point. As with any young player, it’s always worthwhile to monitor his progress, but I don’t think he is worth wasting a roster spot on.

Troy Smith (5.37 - BAL): Before the draft, Ohio State star and 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Smith was ranked as a 2nd-round QB by many observers, right up there with Stanton. But he ended up falling to the fifth round amid concerns about his height (just under 6’), unimpressive combine results, and a lackluster performance in Ohio State’s 41-14 loss to Florida in 2006’s BCS Championship game. He was finally taken by the Ravens, but there were even questions as to whether he’d make the final roster. He showed little in preseason to get excited about, and has been inactive most weeks, behind both Steve McNair and Kyle Boller. Smith was very productive at Ohio State (5,685 yards, 54 TDs, 63% completion rate, 159.7 passer rating), but he may never be successful in taking his game to the pro level – he wouldn’t be the first Heisman Trophy winning QB to flop in the NFL (Jason White, Eric Couch, Danny Wueffel, Gino Torretta, Andre Ware, etc.). I don’t consider him worth holding onto at this point, but if you have the space and like a long-shot, I can understand if you want to gamble on him, especially with the lack of brilliance at the position for the Ravens right now..

Jordan Palmer (6.31 - FA):  Brother to Carson, Palmer was the last QB drafted in the 2007 draft, taken late in the 6th round by the Washington Redskins. The University of Texas El Paso QB didn’t last long in the NFL – Washington released him at the start of September and he has never been picked up by another team. He is totally useless to any dynasty team.

Matt Moore (FA - CAR): Oregon State QB Moore was bypassed in the NFL draft, but was signed as an un-drafted free agent afterwards by the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys waived him and he was picked up by the Panthers. But even as an un-drafted rookie free agent who has shuffled between teams, Moore has done something that Russell, Quinn, Kolb, and most other drafted QBs have not – he has actually gotten to play. Starter Jake Delhomme was injured and David Carr became the starter for the Panthers and Moore was moved up to backup thanks to Brett Basanez also being on IR. Then, in week five against the Saints, Carr was injured and Moore came in and completed one pass out of two attempts for 43 yards before Carr returned to the field. But when the Panthers signed veteran Vinny Testaverde, Moore again got bumped down the depth charts.  But when the 161 year old Testaverde was sidelined with tendonitis, it was Moore who got the call again in week 9’s game against the Titans after Carr suffered a concussion. Moore came in and completed 2 of 5 passes for 36 yards and an interception. Both Carr and Testaverde are hoping to make it back to the field this week, but there is an outside chance Moore may get to play again. Given his level of play, it’s unlikely to think that he will be much more than a stop-gap fill-in. If you have Carr and/or Testaverde on your roster, Moore offers some insurance as a waiver pick-up, but I doubt he will provide any long-term fantasy value.

Matt Gutierrez (FA - NEP): Another un-drafted QB, Gutierrez originally played at the University of Michigan, but transferred to the Idaho State following an injury. He became the starter for Idaho State in 2006, but was passed over in the draft, and was signed by the Patriots as an un-drafted free agent. He managed to make it to the final roster as the third QB behind Tom Brady and Matt Cassel. He’s been inactive some weeks, but has also managed to see the field, mainly taking a knee in late scrimmages, although he’s played special teams also. But in a blowout win against the Dolphins in week 7, Gutierrez completed his only pass attempt for a gain of 15 yards. His future progress is worth monitoring, especially if you have Brady and/or Cassel, but Gutierrez does not merit a roster slot at this point.

So that brings us up to date on the 2007 rookie QBs of note.

If you’ve enjoyed this first version of the Dynasty Pulse, please let us know – we’ll be glad to continue it as an ongoing series. If we get enough positive feedback, I’ll start work on the RB edition.