Sell High

Jay Cutler, QB Chicago Bears – Now I’m not saying Cutler won’t have a decent season, as he is certainly talented enough to put up good numbers wherever he plays. I am also not saying he won’t be better positioned for success in the win-loss column in Chicago than in Denver. I am saying that there are a number of owners who will be expecting to see production similar to his 2008 output of over 4,500 yards and 25 TDs. Fact of the matter is the Bears will use a more balanced attack and have less talent in the receiving corps. He will also likely be keeping his turnover numbers at or above the 18 INTs from last year. There is bound to be an owner willing to overpay for Cutler in your league, so he’s an ideal sell high prospect.

Derrick Ward, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I am in the camp that is a tad confused as to why so many owners are high on Ward. Sure he’s an above average RB who should see an uptick in his touches in Tampa. He may even start. But the fact of the matter is he will lose looks, especially inside the red zone, to Earnest Graham. Heck, Cadillac Williams is still in the mix, and if he gets healthy will make it a three-headed monster in Tampa. Pretty high for someone with an ADP in the late 5th round in drafts. If you have him, sell him high.

Brandon Marshall, WR Denver Broncos – Not a reflection on his talent or ability, but there are storm clouds on the horizon for Marshall’s owners. His starting QB is now Kyle Orton, who is better suited in the short and intermediate passing game. So owners should expect fewer big plays, which are Marshall’s forte. Equally troubling, Marshall is all but skipping mandatory OTAs because he wants a new contract. So far there has not been much word on any negotiations, so a holdout is real fear. If you can afford to sell him, do so while his value is still relatively high. There are too many factors coming into play for him to live up to his past performances.

Antonio Gates, TE San Diego Chargers – Gates surprised me and others last season by actually putting together a respectable season coming off toe and ankle injuries. Problem is, he’s about to turn 29 and those same injuries are still plaguing him. He probably can still be productive for another couple seasons, but he’s starting to pass the apex of his career. This is generally the best time to deal a player like Gates, especially when there are several up and coming prospects at the position.

Buy Low

Brady Quinn, QB Cleveland Browns – Everyone and their mother is down on the Browns’ offense, and rightfully so (on paper). They tried to deal their best receiver, dealt their starting TE, have their no. 2 WR in legal limbo, and have a starting RB whose tank is nearing empty. Plus, there is no decision yet as to who the starting QB will be: Quinn or Derek Anderson. Both are supposedly on equal footing, but the fact of the matter is Quinn has the upper hand in many ways. First, his status as a no.1 pick pressures the franchise into giving him his shot. Second, Quinn has looked good in limited opportunities in games. Finally, Anderson has been missing time with various bumps and bruises in OTAs, giving Quinn more chances to take the lead in the competition. He’s a gamble, but owners looking for a relatively cheap QB with a ton of upside should give him a look.

Joseph Addai, RB Indianapolis Colts – The drafting of Donald Brown was like a dagger in the heart of Addai owners who were thrilled to see Dominic Rhodes walk in free agency. Now many owners are panicking, sensing Addai’s time in the sun may be at an end. Fear not. Brown is going to play second fiddle at least in 2009, and quite frankly Addai’s best years were in a time share. Furthermore, Brown appears to be having difficulty catching the call out of the backfield - a critical skill in the Colts’ offense. So Addai is not going anywhere anytime soon. He can be had for a bargain right now, so do yourself a favor and take him off the hands of desperate owners.

Ted Ginn, Jr, WR Miami Dolphins – Ginn is quietly having a great offseason. All of his coaches are saying he looks like a totally different receiver in his second offseason as a starter, and he clearly has their faith. The Dolphins did not address the WR position in the draft or in free agency, so they obviously feel Ginn can be a star. He’s off many radar screens, and many owners have all but dismissed him. Oh, and he just so happens to be entering his third season in the NFL - that special time when young receivers often blossom having finally grasped the pro game. Snag him at near basement price when and where you can.

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers – A lot of owners are fed up with Davis. His first two seasons have been disappointing at best after coming into the league with a ton of fanfare. He’s a physical freak who has all the tools to be the next Antonio Gates, but his first two offensive coordinators have not managed him well. Of course, it does not help that his work ethic has been less than exemplary. The stars are aligning for Davis though. Quietly word has been coming out of 49ers camp that the new regime wants to utilize him extensively within the offense, so it may be now or never for Davis. He should be available on the cheap in most leagues, so take him if you can from frustrated, disillusioned owners. You could reap the rewards from their impatience.

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