Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable's Sleepers & Busts Week 5
Last Updated on Thursday, 08 October 2009 19:23 Written by Jim Day Thursday, 08 October 2009 17:23
So all the hoopla can finally be laid to rest. Favre did indeed beat up on a tough Green Bay team on Monday night, much to the chagrin of Packer fans everywhere. But as we all know, the NFL is all about what is happening now, and just 2 days after that momentous Monday night affair, the NFL was rocked by 2 big pieces of Wide Receiver news; Michael Crabtree finally signs in San Francisco and The Jets traded Chansi Stuckey, a special teams LB and 2 draft picks for the much-maligned and misunderstood Braylon Edwards. There is definitely no boredom in the NFL, unless of course if you happen to be a fan of Oakland’s offense.
As we move into week 5 and whatever new surprises are just around the corner, The Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable presents Week 5’s Sleepers and Busts.
As this week’s host I get to start off with 3 sleepers:
Jerome Harrison RB CLE – Harrison is going against a very generous Buffalo rush defense. Buffalo has allowed opposing rushers to average 180 total yards and 2 touchdowns a game. Cleveland did lose last week, but at least they played inspired football. I look for that to continue this week. Harrison ran for 121 yards and added another 31 on 5 receptions against a tough Cincy defense. I look for him to match those total numbers but to also add a touchdown against Buffalo.
TJ Houshmandzadeh WR SEA – Housh finally saw some real action in week 4 with 8 receptions for 103 yards. Wallace targeted him 11 times. As of this writing it looks like Wallace will once again get the start in week 5 and I look for Wallace and Housh to pick up where they left off. This week they are greeted by the open arms (and everything else) of a Jacksonville team that allows an average of 16 receptions, 201 yards and 1 touchdown a week to opposing wide receivers. I look for Housh to reassert himself as the alpha receiver on Seattle and build on week’s 4 good game.
Brandon Pettigrew TE DET – There are two injuries that can affect this pick; Stafford and Polamalu. Stafford looked Pettigrew’s way 10 times in week 4 and I am sure Pettigrew would like to have him back this week. But if Stafford can’t go I still think Culpepper will have to use Pettigrew a lot against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed 24 receptions for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns to TEs. This of course leads to the second injury; Polamalu. Most of the yards allowed by Pittsburgh have been allowed since Polamalu was injured in the 1st game. There is a chance that Polamalu plays this week and it may hamper Pettigrew a bit, but I still like his chances as Detroit should have to throw a ton in this one.
Greg Dietz – www.bigtroph.com (@gregdietz) (Greg gives you his 3 busts for the week)
Sammy Morris RB NEP – I think the New England RB situation is always one to stay away from with Bill Belichick shuffling guys in and out so consistently. However, just when I thought Fred Taylor might take on the role of lead back, he went against Baltimore and was held to just 25 yards on seven carries. This week, the team announced that Taylor will need ankle surgery and now the Patriots head to Denver which limited Tashard Choice and Marion Barber to just 74 yards last week and in my opinion, those two are much better than what the Patriots have to offer. Some of you might be looking at Morris as a sneaky play with Taylor down but Morris, along with the rest of the New England backfield will struggle.
Matt Ryan QB ATL– Ryan’s numbers look pretty darn good right about now. He has thrown five touchdowns to just one interception and ranks behind only the Manning brothers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers in QB rating. However, all of those touchdowns came in the team’s first two games which were against Miami and Carolina. When he went up against a quality team in the Patriots in week three, Ryan put up just 199 yards and not a single touchdown. Mike Singletary’s pass defense is currently ranked 11th in the league and is holding opposing quarterbacks to a meager rating of 69.3. Despite coming off the bye this week, Ryan will face tough times on Sunday against San Francisco.
Antonio Bryant WR TBB – It was nice to see Bryant back at full strength last week when he put up 44 yards and scored the Bucs’ lone touchdown. However, with Josh Johnson throwing the ball, there is no way that I can expect Bryant to put up decent enough numbers to be named a fantasy starter simply due to the lack of a decent signal caller tossing him the ball. Add that to the fact that Tampa is facing off against Philadelphia which made Jake Delhomme and Matt Cassel look flat out awful and you have a recipe for absolutely no success for the entire Bucs offense this weekend.
Matt Schauf - RapidDraft.com (@mschauf63)
Sleeper: Matt Cassel QB KCC - The Cowboys have allowed the sixth highest completion rate so far despite facing Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Jake Delhomme and Kyle Orton. Kansas City is one of just three teams (along with Buffalo and St. Louis) to have not yet scored a rushing touchdown this year. The Chiefs will likely need to throw it into the end zone on Sunday to get there. The Cowboys have gotten their pass rush going a bit with three sacks in each of the past two weeks, but Cassel was taken down a total of eight times in his pair of two-touchdown outings. He falls way down the list because weak yardage totals and the fact that his production has come in garbage time makes him anything but a safe bet for fantasy points. If you're scrambling for a bye-week starter, though, you could do worse.
Bust: Eli Manning RB NYG - Obviously, he will be useless if his plantar fascia continues to keep him out. Even if he returns to the field Friday and starts on Sunday, though, Manning doesn't look like a tremendous option against Oakland. No quarterback has thrown more than one touchdown pass against the Raiders so far this year, and that group includes Philip Rivers and Matt Schaub. Beyond that, Manning's injured foot threatens his durability for the contest; making it all the more likely the Giants would pull him if they enjoy a big lead in the second half. En route to that point, an injury to their quarterback should only serve as greater motivation for the team to hand it off against a vulnerable rush defense. Finally, if there's one area in which the Raiders are strong, it's corner. Try to find a better option than Peyton's little bro this week.
Chet Gresham - www.Razzball.com (@razzball)
Sleeper: Marshawn Lynch RB BUF - The Beast will be let loose on Sunday. The Browns have given up 8 touchdowns and 177 yards per game on the ground. The Bills need to show a little toughness and running Lynch is the way to do that against a poor Browns defense. He should see more carries than Jackson this week and was already used well in the passing game. He also should be close to full speed with 2 weeks of practice and is well rested since he has been sitting on the couch waiting for his suspension to be over.
Bust: Michael Turner RB ATL - I still have faith that Michael Turner will be a reliable running back. He is on a good team that will get him in scoring position. But we have already seen that Tony Gonzalez will take away some of his TD's and the uptick in defenses the Falcons have faced have slowed him down. He gets another very good run defense in the 49ers this week. They have allowed a whopping zero rushing touchdowns this year. I usually don't sit my "stud" players, but if you have a good matchup elsewhere I'd do it.
Jason Sarney- www.fantasyphehoms.com (@fantasyphenoms)
Sleeper: Miles Austin WR DAL - Since Week 1, Austin has been very quiet but with a match-up against the league's 28th ranked pass defense, he and QB Tony Romo should have no issues putting up stats. Austin can gain heavy yards per each reception, so even if his catches are limited, I like him to gain over 50 yards, most of which could come from a deep score. If you are hurting with bye weeks this week, consider Austin as a deep sleeper.
Bust: Ted Ginn Jr. WR MIA - Ginn is not coming off a solid few week stretch, and his drops have certainly been getting on the nerves of his owners, as well as the Dolphins in general. With a Monday Night Football match-up against the New York Jets and their top-5 passing defense, mixed with young Chad Henne getting only his second career start at QB, all signs point to sitting Ginn this week. The Fins will rely heavily on the Wildcat with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, so no Miami WR makes for a solid
start in Week 5 against Gang Green.
Bryan Fontaine - RookieBlitz.com (@rookieblitz)
Sleeper: Heath Miller TE PIT - Heath Miller is coming off a stellar game against the Chargers on Sunday night in which he hauled in 7 receptions for 70 yards and scored twice. As the Steelers are becoming a more pass oriented team with the injury woes of Willie Parker, Miller is becoming the safety blanket underneath and in the red zone for Roethlisberger. It shouldn’t go unnoticed that Miller has caught 24 of his 27 targets (89%) in the first quarter of the fantasy football season. It’s time to start considering Miller as a top 10 option this year, and count yourself lucky if you waited to grab your TE or were able to get Miller as your backup. The Lions are a juicy matchup for the Steelers this week; they have allowed opposing TE’s to score 5 touchdowns in just 4 games.
Bust: Zach Miller TE OAK - It’s officially time to start worrying about Zach Miller and the Oakland offense as a whole. Miller is currently questionable to play in Week 5 after suffering a concussion against Houston, but even if he does give it a go it would be best to find a better option this week. After catching 9 passes for 96 yards in Week 1, Miller has done next to nothing as the Oakland offense cannot move the ball with Russell at the helm. It doesn’t appear that Oakland’s passing game will get on track at any point in 2009, and Miller might be headed for the waiver wire in many leagues after another poor performance. The Giants have been susceptible to good TE performances so far (Cooley, Witten, and Sean Ryan) but had no problem shutting down Kellen Winslow and the Buccaneers. Reserve Miller in all scoring formats this week.
Ginny Loveless – www.footballdiehards.com (@GBGinny)
Sleeper: Washington Def - When it comes to the Redskins, it’s not the defense’s fault that the team has been as bad as they have this season. In actuality, they’ve held teams to a tightfisted 15.5 points per game. Washington is the 4th ranked pass defense in the league only allowing an average of 173.5 passing yards per game. In just three games, Jake Delhomme averages three turnovers per game and has been sacked seven times. His touchdown to interception ratio is 2:8, with two being returned for scores. Despite being slightly more charitable than their pass-defense, Washington’s rush defense is still strong, allowing an average of 128.0 rushing yards per game. With fresh legs coming off a bye, Carolina’s duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart look to rebound from their respective unspectacular seasons thus far. While a 4.3 yard per carry average is firm, the Panthers have only run the ball a total of 71 times this season.
*Carolina’s opposing D/STs score an average of 20.3 fantasy points per game.
Bust: Dallas Def - On the outside looking in, one would think that the big name Dallas D, who is middle-of-the-pack among defenses, would have a field day against the Kansas City Chiefs. But, don’t let the big names fool you. The Cowboys are allowing 115.0 rushing yards per game. Larry Johnson, who finally perked up last week against the Giants (18 carries, 53 yards), could do some damage if he is given enough carries. Dallas gives up a liberal 4.7 yards per carry and allows rushing first downs 25.5 percent of the time. But, keep in mind that Kansas City’s ground attack is feeble. Unfortunately, we have to embrace the scenario that the Chiefs may fall behind (early) and will be forced to abandon the run. In that case, the Cowboys are allowing 256.2 passing yards per game, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.8 percent of their throws. Logically, one would surmise that Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe (if he is back to form after his hamstring injury) should prosper under these conditions. On the plus side for the potential start of the Cowboys D/ST, the Chiefs offense has only been able to scrape up an average of 145 passing yards per game, and have given up a monster thirteen sacks. So far, the Chiefs have had to put up with some of the top-ranked defenses in the league, Baltimore, Philadelphia and the Giants.
*Dallas D/ST averages only 6.75 fantasy points per game (only 27 total points on the season).
*Chiefs offense only allows their opposing defenses to score an average of 6.5 fantasy points.
*Key Injury: Starting strong safety Gerald Sensabaugh is out (thumb) replaced by Pat Watkins.
Above are some excellent picks from some of the best Fantasy Football minds on Twitter. If you are not following any of these Twits, then you are missing out on a lot of information every single day.
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But Turner, you're really going to bench your top 5 pick...dont think so. If you're starting Ginn Jr, you shouldnt be playing. Miller for Miller should be happening across the fantasy landscape. I'm rooting for Cassel, or really just a high scoring game.