Psychocat's Crystal Litterbox

Psychocat's Crystal Litterbox - Super Bowl Style

Last Updated on Thursday, 01 April 2010 09:55 Written by Rich Burkhardt Saturday, 06 February 2010 15:51

Well, we’re finally down to the last game of the season, and it looks like a barnburner. So far this year, The Litterbox has a record of 36-25, including 7-3 in the playoffs. Now the challenge is to get this last one right!

Saints at Colts: Although the game is in Miami, the Colts are technically listed as the “home” team. The Colts had an easier time than the Saints in their conference title game, beating the Jets 30-17 while the Saints had to go to overtime to beat the Vikings 31-28.

The Colts did look sluggish for most of the first half, as the Jets jumped out to a 17-6 lead with a little over 2 minutes left in the half. But when QB Peyton Manning hit WR Austin Collie with a 16-yd TD pass with 1:13 left to go in the first half, it was the beginning of the end for the Jets. They never scored again, and two more Manning TD passes plus a FG sealed the victory.

The Super Bowl will feature two of the premier passers in the game today, Manning and Saints QB Drew Brees. Both have a number of good WRs and TEs to work with. The biggest difference on offense is that the Saints had the 5th best rushing offense in the league during the regular season, while the Colts ranked dead last in that department.

For the Saints to win this one, they will need to utilize their rushing capabilities more. Earlier in the season when they were scoring better than 30 points a game most games, they were averaging 150+ rushing yards a game. Over their last five games, when they topped 30 points only once and had three games with fewer than 20 points, they averaged around 90 yds rushing.

Brees’ passing game is at its best when he can use a fair amount of play-action passes, and to do that, they need to run the ball effectively. They have the horses to do it; RBs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush give them a couple of dangerous backs, and backups Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton offer some solid depth. Bush is the multi-purpose guy who can do just about anything; rush, catch and be a dynamic returner. Another solid point is that the Saints run very well out of the shotgun, which is going to cause the Colts’ defense a lot of issues.

Manning, of course, is the old pro, and has the Super Bowl experience that Brees doesn’t have. Although the Jets bottled him up pretty well for almost the whole first half and sacked him twice early, Manning figured out what they were doing and systematically took apart the top rated defense in the league the second half.

He wound up throwing for 377 yds and 3 TDs with no picks in that game and the TD passes went to 3 different receivers. The Jets concentrated on shutting down WR Reggie Wayne, and they did a good job of that. But Manning adjusted and started going to WRs Austin Collie (7-123-1) and Pierre Garcon (11-151-1). TE Dallas Clark was also shut down most of the day, but did have a TD catch.

That’s one of the things that make Manning such a dangerous foe: his ability to adapt to the situation and work with what the opposition is giving them. No matter who you gameplan to take out of Manning’s game, he will always find someone else to fill the void.

The biggest question around the Colts is the uncertain status of DE Dwight Freeney, who tore a ligament in his ankle in the Jets’ game and is questionable for the Super Bowl. Even if Freeney does play, the bum ankle will limit his mobility and effectiveness.

He was 3rd in the league in sacks in the regular season with 13.5, and a less than full strength Freeney makes the Colts pass rush far less effective. It also means the Saints can concentrate more on DE Robert Mathis, the Colts’ other premier pass rusher, who had 9.5 sacks during the regular season.

There are a couple of other injuries that could factor into the game as well. Colts WR Reggie Wayne injured a knee and left practice early on Friday, but the injury is not severe and he is expected to play. For the Saints, TE Jeremy Shockey has also had some knee problems, but he’s considered probable and is expected to play.

Prediction: This is a really tough one; the two teams would seem to be fairly evenly matched. The Colts are favored, and experience is on their side. But sometimes the intangibles factor into it and the Saints are playing for more than just a NFL Championship; they are playing for the City of New Orleans as well. The boost that The Saints winning would give the City of New Orleans would be huge and just another great step up for a city that has spent a long time being down.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and take the underdog in a thriller. Saints 38 - Colts 34.