Psychocat's Crystal Litterbox Conference Championships
Written by Rich Burkhardt Thursday, 21 January 2010 00:00
Well, another 3-1 week, and again the loser was the one I least expected. Guess I should have known better than to go with all the favorites. Let’s see if I can get ‘em both this week.
Saints at Vikings: It’s the #1 vs the #2 seeds in this one, and two great quarterbacks to boot. Both teams won blowouts last weekend, and their QBs put up similar numbers. The Saints’ Drew Brees threw for 247 yds and 3 TDs; the Vikings Brett Favre passed for 234 and 4. But the keys to this game won’t be the passers; everyone knows what they can do. Instead, it will be the ground game and the defenses.
Vikings Analysis: To win, the Vikings really need a big game from RB Adrian Peterson, who had just 63 yds on 26 carries and no TDs last week. An effective Peterson is a key to keeping Brees and the high-powered Saints offense off the field. Favre also needs to be sharp and not try to force the ball. The Saints’ secondary is capable of taking mistakes and turning them into TDs.
In addition The Vikings need to apply the same type of pressure to Brees that they got on Cowboys QB Tony Romo last week, when they dropped him 6 times for 42 yds. The Vikings definitely have the capability to do that; they are one of the strongest units in the NFL. Brees is at his best in play-action situations; the Vikings need to shut those down as much as possible. The Vikings’ special teams will also have to be effective; Reggie Bush returned a punt 83 yds for a TD against the Cardinals and last year returned 2 punts for touchdowns in the same game…against the Vikings.
Saints Analysis: The Saints need to feature Reggie Bush in the ground game more this week. Last week, he had 84 yds on only 5 carries, including a 46-yd TD. He showed lots of fire last week, both inside and outside. With his receiving yardage added in, Bush amassed 217 total yards last week. If they give him the ball more on offense, he could surpass that this week.
Brees could also stand to get TE Jeremy Shockey more involved as well. Shockey had just 3 catches for 36 yds and a TD last week. He’s the kind of guy who is capable of running people over when he gets his hand on the ball.
The Saints’ defense will need to find a way to contain WR Sidney Rice, who had a monster game last week, with 6 catches for 141 yds and 3 TDs. The best way for them to do that would be to get a lot of pressure on Favre, so he has to hurry his throws and not be able to pick and choose his targets.
Prediction: Even though the Vikings are the #2 seed, a lot of folks are picking them to win this one. I’m not one of them; I’m going with the home team.
Saints 31 - Vikings 27
Jets at Colts: Talk about irony…the Colts get to face the team the let into the playoffs when they pulled their starters in the second half of week 16 and gave the game to the Jets. Since that game, the Jets have been playing some killer football. The Colts definitely have a fight on their hands in this one.
Indy Analysis: Mr. MVP needs to find a way to put points on the board against a fired up Jets defense, although he did do fairly well against them in the abbreviated matchup in week 16. Last week against a good Ravens defense, Peyton Manning was 30-46 for 246 yds, 2 TDs, a pick, and was sacked twice. As usual, the ground game was a non-factor, managing just 42 net yards rushing.
The best thing the Colts could do in this game is to get a couple of quick scores. The Jets are not a team built to come from behind; their game relies on the ground attack as much as the Colts rely on the passing game. If the Colts get up early the Jets will have a hard time relying on Mark Sanchez’s arm to lead them back.
They also have to find a way to slow down that Jets ground game. Rookie RB Shonn Greene has been impressive in both playoff games, rushing for 263 yds and 2 TDs total, the 1st time a rookie has ever rushed for over 125 yards and a touchdown in his 1st two playoff games.
Jets Analysis: The Jets need to keep their killer running game going. Besides Greene, RB Thomas Jones is also a threat; if the Colts key on Greene too much, Jones can kill them. They also need to avoid getting into situations where rookie QB Mark Sanchez has to throw too much. At this point in his career, Sanchez is far better when he can throw just often enough to keep the defense honest. As mentioned above, if they get a couple of scores down it’s probably “all she wrote”.
In addition the Jets defense MUST come up big again. They allowed a tad over 14 points a game during the regular season, and have held both opponents in the playoffs to just 14. Last week, they allowed Chargers QB Philip Rivers 1 TD pass and picked him off twice.
Shutdown corner Darrelle Revis will probably be on Colts WR Reggie Wayne most of the day, so that means that someone is going to draw the unenviable job of trying to shut down TE Dallas Clark. Keep Wayne and Clark in check will go a long way towards a Jets win.
Prediction: The Colts are 15-0 in games that have mattered this season, so of course they are the heavy favorites. But the old adage is that offense wins games and defense wins championships. Jets rookie Coach Rex Ryan has made a believer out of me. They shocked the Chargers last week and proved that they belong in the playoffs. This week, they pull a bigger upset and advance to the Super Bowl against the Saints.
Jets 24 - Colts 20
KFFL Hot Off The Wire
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Well written , as always Rich. As I mentioned, I think these both can and will prove to be tight games.... I think if the Jets D plays perfectly and keep Wayne and Clark in check, they can pull the upset. They are playing as good of ball as anyone.
I think the Saints need to get the short passing game in there tomorrow to counter the rush. This could lead to big games from Bush and Shockey....and even Lance Moore if he's healthy.
I just have a terrible gut feeling (indigestion?) that the Viqueens are a team of destiny. I truly pray I'm wrong because I won't hear the end of it from a couple of owners in my local league.....
I also wouldn't mind seeing Favre lose an organ or 3.