Beware The Anomalies
Written by Adam Lasik Friday, 08 January 2010 13:23
Fantasy Football aficionados love stats, and they love hot players. There is no doubt that Tennessee Titans’ running back Chris Johnson embodied both in 2009, bringing a frothy drool to Fantasy owners’ mouths as they think about next year’s draft. Johnson is already inked in as the top overall pick.
Consider this a word of caution.
Dictionary.com defines the word ‘anomaly’ as: “A deviation from the common rule, type, arrangement, or form.” Let’s face it; Johnson’s season represents a huge anomaly that is staggeringly unlikely to ever happen again in his career, much less next year, no matter how good he may be. I hear your reactions already; “But even if he hits some 1700 yards and 9 or 10 touchdowns, he’ll be a great #1 pick! He doesn’t have to repeat this year’s performance.”
And on the surface, that makes sense. Of course, we don’t have to look very hard to find evidence of a consensus #1 based on the previous year’s performance not living up to expectations, but there is something special about 2000+ yards. Of course, it’s so special that it has only been done 5 times in the past, all five since 1973. Featured on that list are some of the all-time greats; O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, and Jamal Lewis all are listed with Chris Johnson in the 2000 yard-club.
With such an exclusive, and accomplished, list of players, surely we can find some reassurance in Johnson’s 2010 season from their stats, right? Well, not so much.
O.J. Simpson may just deserve to be listed with some of the all-time slimiest human beings, but he was an amazing football player. He made the Pro Bowl six times, and cleared 1000 yards on the ground in five straight seasons, and that was back when they only played 14. In 1973, he not only broke 1000, he cleared 2000, posting 2003 yards and 12 touchdowns. Curiously enough, that was the year he registered the fewest receptions of his entire career, catching just six balls for a whopping 70 yards. Nonetheless, he is the first player to have broken the 2000-yard mark – a Stud’s Stud.
Simpson played all 14 games the following year, but managed just 1125 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, adding a paltry 15 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown as a receiver. Sure, he still broke 1000 yards, but Fantasy owners, if any existed at the time, would have gone bald pulling their hair out over that dismal followup to a majestic ’73.
It took 11 years before another runner broke the 2000-yard barrier. Eric Dickerson did it in 1984, his second year in the league. As a rookie, he ran an impressive 1808 yards with 18 touchdowns, and followed that performance with a monstrous 2105 and 14 over 16 games. In 1986 he once again passed 1800 yards, but what about 1985, the year after he joined Simpson in the club?
1234 yards. It was the single lowest total of his entire career as a full-time starter until 1990, when he started missing games and getting phased out.
In 1997, Barry Sanders was inducted into the club when he ran for 2053 yards and 11 touchdowns in the ninth of his 10-straight 1000+ yard seasons. The previous three years all saw him clear 1500 yards on the ground, so his 1491 and 4 touchdowns (the fewest TDs he scored since 1993) made for a disappointing season. It ended up being his last.
Terrell Davis entered the league with a blast in 1995, and just kept getting better each season until 1998, when he broke through the 2000-yard ceiling, posting 2008 and 21 touchdowns. He never again played more than half a season, and only appeared in 4 games the following year, posting just 211 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The last player to join the club was Jamal Lewis, who started his career with two 1300+ yard seasons before exploding to 2066 and 14 touchdowns in 2003. It was the only season of his entire career with double-digit rushing scores. The following season he only managed to appear in 12 games and registered a paltry 1006 yards and 7 TDs.
Anomalies occur at every position. It is unwise to trust that any player will repeat an amazing performance year, after year, after year. Perhaps 5 previous examples is not a large enough sample to make any reliable statistical conclusions, but there is definitely a pattern about which we must be aware – Chris Johnson definitely proved himself a stud, but it’s unlikely that he will even come close to this year’s numbers in 2010. Buyer beware!!
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Don't tell everyone. I want him gone before my pick, so I can grab a more proven RB or WR next year. Good write up and read. To often in this hobby people chase after the last big thing instead of looking for the next big thing.