Psychocat's Crystal Litterbox Wild Card Edition
Written by Rich Burkhardt Friday, 08 January 2010 10:15
Well, last week just goes to show that you never know how teams will play in week 17. The Litterbox went a horrendous 0-3 last week, finishing the regular season 29-22. For the playoffs, I’m going to change the format a bit, but I will be continuing these articles throughout the Super Bowl.
SATURDAY GAMES
Jets (9-7) at Bengals (10-6): This is one of the three rematches in the first round of the playoffs featuring teams that faced each other in the final game of the season. The Jets just rained all over the Bengals parade, crushing them 37-0. That was the first time they’ve been shut out all year, and the second most points they’ve allowed this season.
This was also the first time I can ever remember a team being held to ZERO net yards passing. Carson Palmer was just 1-11 for 0 yards, and J.T. O’Sullivan was 3-8 for 31 yds, but was sacked 3 times for 31 yds in losses.
Bengals’ pluses: Despite his crappy performance last week, Palmer has playoff experience. RB Cedric Benson did not play last week, but will be in the lineup this week. Chad Ochocinco is the best WR on either team, by a long shot. S Chris Crocker will be back after missing three games.
Bengals’ minuses: They could not stop the Jets running game last week, allowing 257 yds rushing in a game where it seemed like everyone but a couple of beer vendors got to carry the ball.
Jets’ Pluses: The top ground game in the league. The Jets had 82 more carries this year than the next closest team, the Carolina Panthers. They also have the #1 defense in fewest points allowed with 14.8 ppg.
Jets’ minuses: Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has hardly been stellar this year. In fact, there are only 4 starting QBs in the league rated lower than Sanchez: JaMarcus Russell, Jake Delhomme, Josh Freeman, and Matthew Stafford.
Prediction: The Bengals looked really terrible down the stretch, managing only a 17-10 win over the lowly Chiefs in their last 4 games. The Jets won 5 of their last 6 (yeah, we have to count the game the Colts handed them on a silver platter), with only a 10-7 loss to the Falcons in there. I’m not sure if this is an upset or not, but after the pasting they gave the Bengals last week; I’ll go with the Jets.
Jets 27 - Bengals 13
Eagles (11-5) at Cowboys (11-5): Boy, did I miss on this one big time last week. I not only picked the Eagles, but also actually picked them to score 31 more points (31) than they actually did. The Cowboys brought out the whoopin’ stick and laid a good one on them. The Eagles had a total of 37 net yards rushing, and the ‘Boys sacked Donovan McNabb 4 times.
Cowboys’ pluses: The offense has been great. QB Tony Romo wound up with 4.483 yds passing and 26 TDs vs 9 picks. RB Marion Barber picked it up a bit in the second half and finished with 932 yds and 7 TDs. WR Miles Austin had 1,320 yds and 11 TDs, and TE Jason Witten had 94 catches and 1,030 yds. The slow-starting defense wound up finishing right behind the Jets for fewest ppg with 15.6, and was 4th against the run.
Cowboys’ minuses: You know you really have to be reaching when the biggest minus you can find is that their PKs were God-awful. They only made 20 of 31 FG attempts this year, although most of that was the now departed Nick Folk (18-28).
Eagles’ pluses: McNabb finally stayed healthy for most of the year, and was there at the end. WR DeSean Jackson can turn any catch into a big play. TE Brent Celek had a standout season: 76 catches, 971 yds, 8 TDs.
Eagles’ minuses: The ground game is mediocre. RB Brian Westbrook has been hurt off and on most of the year, and finished with just 61 carries for 274 yds. Rookie RB LeSean McCoy (155-637-4) did decent as a fill in.
Prediction: The Cowboys have won both games this year between the two teams. They say it’s tough for one team to beat another 3 times in one year, but at this point, the Cowboys are the better team.
Cowboys 30 - Eagles 23
SUNDAY GAMES
Ravens (9-7) at Patriots (10-6): In most seasons, the Patriots would probably be an easy pick here. But this isn’t most seasons, and this could quite possibly be the best game of the weekend…and one that might end up different than you would expect.
Patriots’ pluses: OK, that’s easy. Start with QB Tom Brady, the comeback player of the year. After missing all last season with a knee injury and getting off to a slow start, Brady finished with 4,398 yds and 28 TD passes vs 13 picks. Add in WR Randy Moss, who had 83 catches, 1,264 yds and 13 TDs. Add in a defense that was 5th in fewest points allowed with 17.8 ppg.
Patriots’ minuses: They lost probably their most important player last week when WR Wes Welker (123-1,348-4) went down with a knee injury that will keep him out throughout the playoffs. Forget all this crap you hear about Julian Edelman being a Welker clone. That well may be, but you just don’t replace a guy that has had three straight seasons of more than 110 catches, particularly not at the start of the playoffs. Welker is the main reason the Patriots can get away with a less than stellar ground game.
Ravens’ pluses: Ray Rice. This guy could easily be the best, most versatile player in this round of playoffs. When you get 1,339 yds and 7 TDs rushing plus 78 catches, 702 yds and a TD receiving from a RB, you’ve got a gem. RB Willis McGahee had less than half of Rice’s yards, but scored 12 rushing TDs. WR Derrick Mason had 1,028 receiving yds and 7 TDs, and TE Todd Heap scored 6 times. The Ravens Defense is 3rd in the league in fewest ppg allowed with 16.3
Ravens’ minuses: This is another team that’s sort of tough to find minuses for. QB Joe Flacco is no Brady, but he still had a pretty good season. Their receiving corps is thin once you get past Mason, Heap, and Rice out of the backfield; Rice actually led the team in catches.
Prediction: That aroma in the air could well be the scent of an upset. The loss of Welker means the Patriots may not be able to move the chains as well as usual, plus he’s Brady’s security blanket. They’ll have to rely more on big plays, and that could hurt. Stopping Rice is also a huge order. Much as this Steelers fan hates to say this, I’ll go with the Ravens.
Ravens 24 - Patriots 20
Packers (11-5) at Cardinals (10-6): Another rematch from last weekend, when the Packers blew out the Cards 33-7 in Arizona. But in that game, the Cardinals rested their starters for most of the game; QB Kurt Warner only played on quarter. The Packers played most of their first team for the bulk of the game.
Packers’ pluses: RB Ryan Grant wound up with 1,253 yds and 11 TDs. QB Aaron Rodgers finished with 4,434 yds and 30 TDs, both 4th in the league. WR Greg Jennings had 1,113 yds and 4 TDs, and “Mr. Reliable” Donald Driver had 1,061 and 6. That’s the 6th straight season for Driver of 1,000+ yds receiving.
The Packers also had the top rushing defense in the league, allowing just 83.3 ypg and 5 rushing TDs. CB Charles Woodson tied for the league lead in picks with 9, and returned 3 of those for TDs.
Packers’ minuses: Rogers tied for the league lead in a stat you don’t want to see…he was sacked 50 times. The ground game behind Grant is also shaky; Rodgers was the second leading rusher on the team with 316 yds and 5 rushing TDs.
Cardinals’ pluses: QB Kurt Warner may not have had the season this year that he did last year, but he still threw 26 TD passes. WR Larry Fitzgerald had 1,092 yds and 13 TDs and WR Anquon Boldin had 1,024 and 4. Rookie RB Beanie Wells led the team in rushing with 793 yds and added 7 TDs and RB Tim Hightower had 8 TDs, giving the Cardinals the best ground game they’ve had in a while.
Cardinals’ minuses: Boldin sprained his left ankle and left MCL last week, and may not be able to play. The Cardinals secondary is also banged up. S Antrel Rolle is questionable with a thigh injury, and CB Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie injured his knee last week and also may not play.
Prediction: The Packers have won 7 of the last 8, with the only loss being 37-36 to the Steelers on the last play of the game. They’ve been scoring a lot of points during that span, an average of over 30 points a game. The Cardinals have been prone to turnovers recently, and they can’t do that and beat the Packers.
Packers 34 - Cardinals 24
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