Psychocat's Crystal Litterbox Week 17
Written by Rich Burkhardt Saturday, 02 January 2010 07:13
Week 16 proved to be pretty good for The Litterbox, as we went 2-1 to bring the season record to 29-19. Since this is the last week of the season, we’re going to go with 3 games this week that still has playoff implications.
Eagles (11-4) at Cowboys (10-5): This one is probably the biggest game of the weekend. If the Cowboys win, they go as divisional champs and the Eagles are the wild card because the Cowboys will have won both head-to-head matchups, and they could possible get the #2 overall seed if the Viking s lose to the Giants. If the Eagles win, they not only go as divisional winner, but also secure a first round bye no matter what the Vikings do because of better conference record.
Eagles’ keys: The biggest thing for them right now is to maintain the consistency they have shown over the last 6 weeks, when they have been undefeated. The Eagles are third in the NFL in scoring with 28.6 ppg.
With the recent falters by the Saints and Vikings, they’re probably the best team in the NFC right now. During the 6 game winning steak, they’ve averaged slightly better than 31 ppg while giving up a little more than 21 ppg.
The biggest problem for the Eagles may be giving QB Donovan McNabb protection. He was sacked 4 times and picked twice during the first matchup, a 20-16 Cowboys win in week 9.
The Eagles also just lost starting center Jamaal Jackson last week with a torn ACL, so RG Nick Cole is being moved to center, his first NFL start at that position. The shift of Cole means that the Eagles will be playing with two different offensive linemen this week, something the Cowboys will undoubtedly try to exploit.
RB Brian Westbrook is finally back from after suffering a concussion earlier in the season, but had just 32 yds on 9 carries vs the Broncos last week. The best bet is that the Eagles will look to throw to WR DeSean Jackson (60-1,120-9) and TE Brent Celek (69-875-8) early and often.
Cowboys’ keys: This is a far different Cowboys team from earlier in the season when their defense was struggling. Now they are tied with the Patriots for 3rd in fewest points allowed with just 16.7 ppg. They also struggled to get to the QB early in the season, but now are among the league leaders in sacks with 38.
Getting pressure on the Eagles to disrupt McNabb will be paramount. LB DeMarcus Ware has come on strong after a slow start, and is now 3rd among LBs in sacks with 11. DE Jay Ratliff dumped McNabb twice in the earlier game, and can also be expected to harry him again. The Cowboys secondary will also have to keep a close eye on Jackson, who is a big-play artist.
Defense will be key for the Cowboys, because they’re not as prolific at scoring as the Cowboys, averaging 22.5 ppg. QB Tony Romo (4,172-24-8) is having a fine season, but will have to be wary of Eagles DE Trent Cole, who has 12.5 sacks. Romo has been dumped 32 times this year, and his o-line will have to do a great job of protecting him.
WR Miles Austin (74-1,230-11) has had a breakout season, and like Jackson, is capable of turning any catch into a big play. TE Jason Witten (88-954-1) once again leads the team in receptions and is a great safety valve for Romo. WR Roy Williams (38-596-7) doesn’t have a ton of catches but has been finding the end zone a lot recently.
RB Marion Barber (200-841-7) has been playing better as of late, with 3 TDs in the past 2 games, which is good news for the Cowboys. If they can run the ball effectively against the Eagles, they stand a better chance of winning.
Prediction: McNabb may not have Romo’s numbers, but the Eagles find ways to score more often than the ‘Boys. Look for it to be close, but the Eagles win a close one.
Eagles 31 - Cowboys 27
Bengals (10-5) at Jets (8-7): There’s a lot on the line in this one too. If the Jets win, the get one of the two AFC wild-card spots. Although the Bengals have Clinched the AFC North, a win by them coupled with a Patriots loss to the Texans would give them the #3 seed in the playoffs.
Bengals’ keys: They need to get the offense clicking more or no matter what happens here, they’re going to face an early exit in the playoffs. They lost tow in a row before barely beating the pitiful Chiefs 17-10 by scoring the winning TD with just 2:03 left in the game.
Although the Bengals have the 5th best rushing offense in the league with 132.3 ypg and are 3rd in rushing attempts with 487, their ground game has put the ball in the end zone just 9 times, which is well near the bottom of the league in that category. In fact, the lowly Browns have just one less rushing TD for the season, and the Lions have the same number.
They’ll need to bet more than that out of the ground game to beat the Jets, because their passing game is good but not great. QB Carson Palmer (3,094-21-12) has had a credible year after being out last season with an injury, but is nowhere near the Pro-Bowl type passer he was a couple of years back.
WR Chad Ochocinco (72-1,047-9) has rebounded this year to have a great season. The rest of the receiving corps, however, is nothing to write home about. None of the other receivers have reached the 500-yd mark, and only WR Laverneus Coles (40-495-5) is much threat to get into the end zone.
Defense has been the Bengals’ Forte this season; they are 4th in the league for fewest points allowed with 16.9 ppg. They’re also second against the run, allowing just 87.7 ypg and 8 TDs all year long. They also have two of the best corners in the league in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall, who both have 6 picks.
Jets’ keys: If you want to talk about a one-dimensional offense, this is it. The Jets lead the league in rushing attempts (550), rushing yardage (2,499) and ypg (166.6) with 17 rushing TDs. But their passing offense is pitiful; it ranks 31st overall, ahead of only the Browns, with 168.9 ypg. 12 TDs and 21 picks.
RB Thomas Jones (304-1,324-12) has once again been a workhorse for them. Jones is 4th in the league in rushing yardage, tied for 3rd in carries, and tied for 3rd in TDs. Rookie Shonn Greene (95-478-2) has given Jones a break once in a while.
As for the alleged passing game…well, to say rookie QB Mark Sanchez (2,381-12-20) has had a tough debut season is putting it kindly. Sanchez has had 4 games this year where he’s thrown 3 or more picks, and has had just 4 TDs vs 10 picks over the last 7 games.
Defensively, the Jets have been stellar. They lead the league in fewest points allowed with 15.7 ppg. They’re first against the pass with 163.9 ypg allowed, and also lead the league in fewest TD passes allowed with just 8. They’re also decent against the run: 9th overall with 100.4 ypg and 11 TDs allowed.
Prediction: Look for a real slobberknocker of a game, low scoring with just enough passing to keep the defenses honest. The Jets are pretty much of a one-trick pony, shut down Jones and you pretty well stop them. Look for the Bengals to win a relatively low-scoring affair.
Bengals 20 - Jets 17
Patriots (10-5) at Texans (8-7): In the muddled AFC, this game still has some significance. The Texans have an outside shot at the playoffs, but they have to win to have any chance. The Patriots have clinched the AFC East, but the question of whether they are the #3 or #4 seed depends on the outcome of this game and the Bengals-Jets tilt.
Texans’ keys: The Texans are once again doing their annual tease act. For several years now, people have been expecting them to make the playoffs, and they always seem to wind up around 8-8. They’re also a team that seems to go in fits and starts. Starting with week 6, they won 3 in a row; lost 4 in a row (including two to the Colts) and have now won 3 in a row again.
They also bring the league’s top passing offense into this game. QB Matt Schaub (4,467-27-14) leads the league in passing yardage. WR Andre Johnson (95-1,504-9) leads the league in receiving yardage, and is always a threat for a big play.
It’s a good thing they have the passing game, because their ground game stinks. RB Steve Slaton (131-437-3) is the leading rusher on the team. Slaton has actually done better as a receiver out of the backfield (44-417-4) than he has as a rusher.
The ground game has been so bad that last week they turned to undrafted rookie RB Arian Foster, who responded with 97 yds and a TD on 19 carries. Look for Foster to get the bulk of the running attempts this week.
Patriots’ keys: It’s no surprise that the Patriots also live and die with their passing game. QB Tom Brady (4,212-28-12) got off to a slow start coming back from a knee injury that kept him out last season, but is now 4th in the league in passing yardage. WR Randy Moss (78-1,199-13) leads the league in TD catches.
But as usual, it’s WR Wes Welker that makes this team go. For my money, Welker4 is one of the best players in the NFL, but doesn’t get the love because he doesn’t score a lot. But consider this: he leads the league…again…in receptions with 122; the only other receiver with more than 100 in Brandon Marshall of the Broncos with 101.
He’s also second in receiving yardage with 1,336 and has 7 games with 10 or more catches. All this, and he missed two games early in the season with an injury. Had he played in those two, he might well have put up a 150 catch, 1,600-yd season.
The Patriots’ ground game is at least better than the Texans. RB Laurence Maroney (194-757-9) has been performing better lately. RB Kevin Faulk is more of a 3rd down receiving back than a rusher, but he still plays a valuable role.
Defensively, the Patriots have been pretty stingy; they’re tied for 3rd in fewest points allowed with 16.7. Since getting blown out by the Saints five weeks ago, they’ve only allowed more than 20 points once, in a 22-21 loss to the Dolphins. However, they haven’t faced a truly strong opponent in that time with a passing attack like the Texans.
Prediction: Much as I’d like to see the Texans win to give them at least a playoff shot, the Patriots are a better balanced team. I look for a pretty good amount of scoring, but the Patriots should prevail.
Patriots 34 - Texans 24
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