Fantasy Football Whiz

1) Aaron Rodgers is about to go 2007 Tom Brady 

Remember when Tom Brady went for almost 5,000 yards and 50 scores in 2007 and was the best player in fantasy?  Yeah?  Well, say hello to Aaron Rodgers.  While spending much of last year on his butt (the Packers finished last in the league in sacks allowed), Rodgers still managed to lead the Packers offense to a #3 NFL ranking in points, and a #6 NFL ranking in yards.  Rodgers also threw 30 TDs against only 7 INTs. 

But here’s the key – while many are saying the Packers offensive line is suspect this year – nothing could be further from the truth.  While it’s true that the Packers allowed 51 sacks last year, a stunning 42 of those sacks came in the first 9 games.  But in the last 7 games, after Tauscher came back?  Only 9 sacks.  And that same group that gelled for those last 7 games (Clifton-Colledge-Wells-Sitton-Tauscher), they all return healthy in 2010.  Better still, the Packers have some very capable back ups in Jason Spitz, TJ Lang and 1st round stud Brian Bulaga.  There’s no reason to think the Packers offensive line won’t be one of the league’s best in 2010.  Expect Rodgers to have all day to throw the ball. 

And that will be a problem, because alongside proven WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, the Packers have three guys in James Jones, Jordy Nelson and most especially, Jermichael Finley, who are ready to take the next step.  At this point, the secret is out on Finley.  Everyone expects a big year from Mr. Monday Night, but like Rodgers, people may be underestimating just how big.  Finley spent this summer training with Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, perhaps the league’s best receiver and a consummate professional.  Finley’s physical tools are nightmarish, and now it appears as if he’s adding the mental component.  And then there’s Jones and Nelson, two very talented guys who should benefit immensely as the coverage shifts elsewhere.    

Read more: 5 Fantasy Predictions for 2010

The “Dark Days” are almost over. Training camps are opening up, and the noses of fantasy football players everywhere are starting to twitch with the familiar scent of a new season starting to permeate the air. Draft day is just around the corner, and owners everywhere are starting to work on strategies to help them crush their opposition this year.

With that in mind, here are some things…in no particular order… to keep in mind when you go into you draft. Some of them may seem simple, but you’d be surprised how often many of them get overlooked, to the detriment of the owner who ignores them.

First and foremost, there is no one “great draft strategy” anyone can give you that will guarantee a good team. There are far too many variables in fantasy football: the type of league (redraft, keeper, IDP, dynasty, etc.); size of the league; composition of the league, and starting roster composition.

One league I’m in, for example, starts two QBs every week, so they tend to fly off the board earlier than they would in a typical league that starts one. The same is frequently true for leagues with a large number of teams. Once the QB run starts, it’s time to grab one or be left with the Brady Quinns of the world.

Flexibility and adaptability are also keys to having a good draft. Sure, it’s a great idea to have an idea of players to acquire. But don’t get so wedded to that idea that if someone else gets them, your whole draft strategy blows up.

This also comes into play in deciding when to draft a specific position. Maybe you want to get your RBs and WRs early, and leave the QB go till the middle rounds. But if the best QBs start coming off the board in the late 2nd or early 3rd rounds, is that strategy still the best?

Read more: A Psycho View Of Drafting

“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”
– Wayne Gretzky

The Great One’s hockey advice is also sound advice for fantasy football owners.  In the same way that the NFL changes from year to year, winning strategies for fantasy football owners also change annually.  The key to a great squad lies in understanding those changing strategies, staying ahead of the curve, and not following the trends from the previous year.  Skate to where the puck is going to be… With that in mind, I give you 5 winning strategies for the 2010 season. 

• The big three quarterbacks: more valuable than ever.

For years, it’s been considered fantasy football lunacy to select a QB in the first round.  Not this year!  In my mind, the first five picks are easy: Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Andre Johnson.  After that, every RB and WR comes with a question mark.  Can Gore and Turner stay on the field?  Can Stephen Jackson reach the endzone?  Will Fitzgerald’s numbers drop now that Warner is gone?  So many questions!

Enter the QB...

Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning – for most people (me included) those are the three, clear-cut, upper echelon QBs.  And depending on your view of the “Madden Curse” (it is REAL!) there may only be two upper echelon QBs this year.  But for the sake of this article, we will assume video game voodoo does not apply. 

Outside of the five players I named previously, these three QBs might be the safest and most productive picks.  Face it, if Rodgers, Brees and Manning are on the field, 20 or more points is basically a given.  Think about that for a moment…every week, you are starting with 20-30 points before your RBs and WRs have even been counted.  It’s hard to argue with that kind of consistency.

Read more: 5 Winning Fantasy Football Strategies for 2010

Bold Prediction #1:

Hakeem Nicks will be a top 10 WR in 2010.

Nicks got off to a slow start in 2009 because of injuries, but once on the field, he quickly started to show the qualities that made him a 1st round pick for the Giants in 2009. He ended the season tied for 1st in rookie receiving yards with 790, 3rd in average yards per catch for any receiver with more than 30 receptions, tied for 2nd in touchdowns, 2nd in both most 20+ yard receptions and 40+ yard receptions, and he led ALL receivers in average yards after catch per reception.

Look for Nicks to continue to build on a strong rookie season and become one of the top WRs in the game.

Bold Prediction #2:

Read more: Taz' Bold Predictions 2010